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Down 74% Over the Past Year, Is Moderna Stock a Buy?
The Motley Foolยท 2025-07-26 07:55
Core Viewpoint - Moderna is currently facing challenges with declining revenue and stock performance, but has potential for long-term growth if its oncology pipeline proves successful [1][2][9]. Revenue Performance - In 2022, Moderna generated over $19 billion in revenue, which fell to $3.24 billion in 2024, raising questions about its future revenue potential [2]. - The recent approval of a COVID-19 vaccine for at-risk children aged 6 months and older may open new market opportunities, but it is uncertain if this will restore revenue to previous levels [2]. Pipeline Developments - Moderna is focusing on applying its mRNA technology to oncology, with the intismeran autogene vaccine currently in phase 3 trials for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer [4][5]. - Other potential oncology applications include treatments for bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma [4]. Valuation Insights - Valuation is challenging due to recent losses; analysts do not expect earnings per share until at least 2027, with a potential EPS of $3.52, leading to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times [8]. - The current price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.6 times fiscal 2024 sales, with projected revenue for 2025 expected to decline further to between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion [10]. Market Potential - The oncology market is projected to reach $900 billion by 2034, representing a significant growth opportunity for Moderna if it successfully navigates clinical trials and regulatory approvals [9]. Investment Considerations - Investors need to be patient as Moderna works through its clinical trials and seeks approval for its oncology drugs, which are seen as key to regaining momentum [9][10]. - There is a risk of further stock decline if 2025 performance is weaker than expected, potentially creating better buying opportunities [11].