December 18, 2025 05:02 AM GMT Cybersecurity | North America 2026 Outlook: Any More Room on the Platform? Platforms were the source of excess cybersecurity returns in 2025, despite profitable growth from multiple other names within the space. Continue to favor platforms, but with platforms having M&A to work through in 1H, we could see 20% + growth best-of-breed outperforming as well. Key Takeaways Platforms have seen the returns in 2025; we expect them to continue to outperform, but believe other opportuni ...

Core Viewpoint - Zscaler reported strong fiscal first-quarter results with earnings and sales exceeding Wall Street expectations, yet the stock price declined due to high market expectations prior to the report [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Zscaler earned an adjusted 96 cents per share for the quarter ending October 31, a 25% increase from the previous year, surpassing analyst expectations of 86 cents [2]. - Sales rose 26% to $788 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $773 million [2]. - For the current quarter, Zscaler guided for sales of $798 million, slightly above the analyst forecast of $796 million, with earnings per share guidance between 89 cents and 90 cents aligning with estimates [3]. Market Response - Despite positive quarterly performance, Zscaler's stock fell over 10% to $258.80, contributing to a 21% decline in November, although it remains up 44% year-to-date [4][8]. - Analysts expressed mixed sentiments; while some noted the results met buy-side expectations, others highlighted the need for clearer disclosures regarding the performance of the recently acquired Red Canary [6][7]. Competitive Landscape - Zscaler operates in the cloud-based cybersecurity sector, competing with companies like Palo Alto Networks, Cloudflare, and Fortinet [5]. - The company is recognized for its Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) offering, which is crucial for securing corporate networks [5]. Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley's analyst noted that Zscaler's results were largely in line with expectations, expressing confidence in growth prospects despite minor concerns [6]. - Mizuho's analyst pointed out two unwelcome surprises: lower guidance for net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) and lack of specific contribution details from the Red Canary acquisition, leading to a price target reduction [7]. Stock Ratings - Zscaler's stock had an IBD Composite Rating of 91 out of 99, indicating strong growth potential, although the recent stock slide raises questions about future performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - Zscaler Inc. is experiencing a balance between stabilizing growth and aggressive innovation as it approaches its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report on November 25 [1] Management's Forecast: Margins And Milestones - Zscaler projects revenue between $772 million and $774 million, indicating approximately 23% year-over-year growth [2] - The company aims to recover gross margins to 80% after a decline in the previous quarter due to a one-time, hardware-heavy government deployment [2] Growth Vectors and Acquisitions - CEO Jay Chaudhry highlights three major growth areas: AI Security, Zero Trust Everywhere, and Data Security Everywhere, which have collectively surpassed $1 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) [3] - The acquisition of Red Canary is expected to contribute $95 million in ARR for the fiscal year [3] Market Sentiment and Strategic Positioning - Wall Street sentiment is largely positive, with Cantor Fitzgerald raising its price target to $365, driven by confidence in the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) opportunity and anticipated synergies from the Red Canary acquisition [4]

Core Insights - Fortinet reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates, with earnings rising 17% to $0.74 per share and revenue increasing 14% to $1.72 billion, although guidance for future quarters fell short of analyst expectations [2][3][4] Financial Performance - For Q3, Fortinet's earnings were $0.74 per share on an adjusted basis, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.63 per share [2] - Revenue for the quarter reached $1.72 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $1.704 billion [2] - Billings for Q2 rose 14% to $1.81 billion, slightly below the expected $1.804 billion [2] Guidance and Market Reaction - Fortinet's guidance for the upcoming quarter is revenue between $1.825 billion and $1.885 billion, below the estimate of $1.875 billion [3] - Expected billings for the next quarter are projected to be between $2.185 billion and $2.285 billion, also below the estimate of $2.231 billion [3] - Following the earnings report, Fortinet's stock fell over 10% to $76.82, reflecting investor concerns over weak guidance [4] Competitive Landscape - Fortinet operates in the firewall network security market, competing with companies like Palo Alto Networks and Check Point Software Technologies [5] - Palo Alto Networks is planning to acquire CyberArk for $25 billion, indicating ongoing consolidation in the cybersecurity sector [5] Strategic Focus - Fortinet is shifting focus towards the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) market, which is seen as a new growth opportunity for the company [6][7] - Analysts suggest that investors should concentrate on Fortinet's growing SASE and platform businesses rather than the traditional firewall refresh cycle [7] Stock Ratings - Fortinet holds a Composite Rating of 76 out of a possible 99, indicating a relatively strong position in the market [7] - The stock has an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of B, suggesting moderate institutional buying activity [8]

Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW) is highlighted as a top investment opportunity by analysts, with a focus on its strong position in the cybersecurity market [1] - The company has successfully leveraged its leading position in firewalls to expand into emerging segments such as Secure Access Service Edge (SASE), Security Information and Event Management (SIEM), and cloud security, contributing to a Next-Generation Security revenue exceeding $5 billion in annual run rate [1] - The ongoing prioritization of cybersecurity by customers is expected to support sustainable above-average revenue growth for Palo Alto Networks [1] Company Performance - Palo Alto Networks has established a significant presence in key cybersecurity segments, which are projected to drive future growth [1] - The company is recognized for its potential to benefit from advancements in AI, which is anticipated to influence cybersecurity strategies and decisions [1] Market Outlook - The cybersecurity sector is expected to remain a top priority for businesses, with Palo Alto Networks positioned to gain market share [1] - While there is recognition of Palo Alto's potential, some analysts believe that other AI stocks may offer higher returns with lower risk [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved revenue of $562 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.7% [5][21] - Gross margin was reported at 75.3%, within the long-term target range of 75% to 77% [5][23] - Operating profit reached $85.9 million, with an operating margin of 15.3%, an increase of 50 basis points year over year [5][25] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $75 million, or 13% of revenue, compared to $45.3 million, or 11% of revenue in the same period last year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of large customers (those paying more than $100,000 per year) increased by 23% year over year, totaling 4,009 [5][22] - Revenue contribution from large customers grew to 73% of total revenue, up from 67% in the same quarter last year [5][22] - Dollar-based net retention rate improved to 119%, up 5 percentage points quarter over quarter [5][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. revenue represented 50% of total revenue, increasing by 31% year over year [21][22] - EMEA accounted for 27% of revenue with a 26% year-over-year increase, while APAC represented 15% of revenue with a 43% year-over-year increase [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from a product-led growth model to a true enterprise sales approach, which is driving larger deal sizes and increased sales productivity [6][33] - The focus on innovation and operational excellence is evident in the strong financial results and growth in customer metrics [20][28] - The company aims to achieve $5 billion in annualized revenue by Q4 2028, with a projected $3 billion annualized revenue run rate by Q4 2026 [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, highlighting the transformative potential of AI and the company's role in shaping the future of the internet [19][60] - The company is focused on ensuring that all businesses, regardless of size, can participate in the evolving digital landscape [63] Other Important Information - The company announced participation in upcoming technology conferences, indicating ongoing engagement with the industry [4] - A key executive, CJ Desai, is leaving the company to pursue a CEO role at another technology firm, which management views as a testament to the company's ability to develop leaders [6][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the acceleration in RPO growth this quarter? - Management attributed the acceleration to a transformation towards enterprise sales, increased average deal sizes, and strong performance from large customer cohorts [32][34] Question: Are sales productivity gains flattening out? - Management believes that sales productivity will continue to improve due to the caliber of new team members and the ramping up of sales capacity [39] Question: What advantages does the integration with Oracle OCI provide? - The integration allows Oracle customers to access Cloudflare's tools within OCI, facilitating a multi-cloud future with consistent security and network performance [40][41] Question: How is the company addressing capacity constraints in Workers? - Management stated that they are not capacity constrained due to their network architecture, which allows for efficient workload management across global resources [44][46] Question: What is the company's approach to quantum-safe security? - The company is proactively working on quantum-safe cryptography in partnership with Google, ensuring that security measures are in place ahead of potential future threats [73][75]

Company Performance - Check Point Software Technologies reported third quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street estimates, with earnings rising 75% to $3.94 per share on an adjusted basis [1] - Revenue for the September quarter climbed 7% to $678 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $673 million [1][2] - Billings, a key sales growth metric, increased by 20% to $672 million, compared to the consensus estimate of $608 million [2] Future Outlook - For the current December quarter, analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $2.88 on revenue of $741 million [2] - Check Point typically provides guidance during its earnings calls, which will be closely monitored by investors [2] Stock Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Check Point stock surged 10% to near $211 in early trading [3] - Prior to the earnings announcement, Check Point stock had already increased by 4% in 2025 [3] Competitive Landscape - Check Point competes in the firewall network security market against companies like Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet [3] - The company is focusing on the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) market, which is seen as a new growth opportunity [4] Technical Ratings - Check Point stock holds a Composite Rating of 64 out of a best-possible 99, indicating moderate performance [5] - The Accumulation/Distribution Rating for Check Point stock is C-plus, suggesting neutral institutional buying activity [5] Industry Context - The Computer Software-Security group ranks No. 90 out of 197 industry groups tracked, with some cybersecurity stocks like CrowdStrike and Zscaler outperforming the software sector in 2025 [6]

Core Insights - Cisco Systems' security business is experiencing significant growth, with revenues increasing by 59% in fiscal 2025 to $8.09 billion, representing 19.5% of total revenues [1][10] - The acquisition of Splunk has enhanced Cisco's security offerings, particularly in Threat Intelligence, Detection, and Response (TIDR) and Extended Detection and Response (XDR) [2][10] - Cisco's security revenues for Q4 fiscal 2025 reached $1.95 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, driven by the integration of Splunk and the expansion of Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) solutions [3][10] Security Business Performance - The integration of Splunk has led to a 14% year-over-year growth in new logos for Splunk, with Cisco adding 750 new customers through its security solutions in the reported quarter [3][10] - Orders for Cisco's security business grew in the mid-single digits, indicating positive growth prospects [3] Future Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 fiscal 2026 service revenues is projected at $2.24 billion, reflecting an 11% growth compared to the previous year [4] - The earnings estimate for Q1 fiscal 2026 is set at 98 cents per share, suggesting a 7.7% increase from the same quarter last year [13] - For fiscal 2026, the earnings estimate is $4.04 per share, indicating a 6% growth from the prior year [14] Competitive Landscape - Cisco faces strong competition in the security sector from companies like Fortinet and Okta, which have established innovative portfolios and strong market positions [5][6][7] - Fortinet is recognized for its extensive AI capabilities and has evolved into a comprehensive security ecosystem [6] - Okta's AI-powered offerings are gaining traction, particularly in identity management and security [7] Stock Performance - Cisco's stock has appreciated by 18.6% year-to-date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which has returned 24% [8][9] - Cisco's stock is currently trading at a premium, with a trailing 12-month price/book ratio of 5.93X compared to the industry's 5.69X [15]

Core Insights - Fortinet (FTNT) is at a pivotal moment as its firewall upgrade cycle is halfway through, with 40-50% of the refresh opportunity completed, driven by customers replacing legacy systems with Next-Generation Firewalls (NGFWs) before their 2026 end-of-service dates [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Fortinet's billings increased by 15% year-over-year to $1.78 billion, indicating strong demand for its advanced NGFWs, which integrate AI-driven threat prevention, zero-trust access, and secure SD-WAN [2] - The company anticipates that approximately 650,000 firewall units will reach end-of-service by late 2026, followed by another 350,000 low-end units in 2027, presenting a stable revenue opportunity [2] - Fortinet raised its 2025 billings guidance by $100 million to a range of $7.325-$7.475 billion, reflecting confidence in continued demand [3] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Fortinet's total revenues to grow by 13.29% in 2025 and 11.05% in 2026, indicating steady double-digit growth [4] - Earnings estimates for Fortinet are $2.52 per share for 2025 and $2.77 per share for 2026, suggesting year-over-year earnings growth of 6.33% for 2025 and 9.83% for 2026 [13] Competitive Landscape - Fortinet competes with Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP) in the next-generation firewall market. While PANW excels in enterprise deployments and advanced cloud integration, Fortinet maintains an edge in cost efficiency for mid-sized businesses [5] - Check Point emphasizes a prevention-first security approach, but Fortinet's integrated Security Fabric and faster innovation provide it with a competitive advantage in scalability and efficiency [6] Valuation Metrics - Fortinet shares have declined by 10.4% year-to-date, underperforming the Zacks Security industry's 23.2% rally and the broader Computer and Technology sector's 23.8% growth [7] - The company appears overvalued with a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 8.84, higher than the sector's average of 6.94 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The cybersecurity industry is in its early stages, driven by the need for enhanced security due to AI vulnerabilities, with significant consolidation expected among the 4,000 cybersecurity companies globally [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW) is recognized as a leading cybersecurity platform, leveraging its strong position in firewalls to expand into emerging segments like Secure Access Service Edge (SASE), Security Information and Event Management (SIEM), and cloud security [3]. - The company's Next-Generation Security revenue has surpassed $5 billion in annual run rate, indicating a substantial growth potential in the cybersecurity market [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The cybersecurity sector is anticipated to remain a top priority for customers, with ongoing share gains expected to support above-average revenue growth [3]. - The integration of AI in cybersecurity is expected to drive decision-making at multiple levels, as AI can enhance the effectiveness of adversaries and expand the attack surface, necessitating more advanced security measures [3]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - Palo Alto Networks is considered relatively inexpensive at 14 times earnings, making it an attractive option for investors looking to own a basket of cybersecurity stocks [2]. - While there is potential for Palo Alto as an investment, some analysts believe that other AI stocks may offer greater returns with limited downside risk [3].