Core Insights - Corteva, Inc. reported $2.62 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 12.6%, with an EPS of -$0.23 compared to -$0.49 a year ago, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.49 billion by 5.2% and delivering an EPS surprise of 53.06% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Seed revenue was $917 million, surpassing the estimated $765.33 million, reflecting a 32.7% increase year-over-year [4] - Crop Protection revenue totaled $1.7 billion, slightly below the estimated $1.76 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 4% [4] - Other Crop Protection revenue was $110 million, significantly lower than the estimated $149.2 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 55.3% [4] - Other Seed revenue was $38 million, below the estimated $75.13 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of 50.7% [4] - Herbicides revenue reached $813 million, slightly above the estimated $800.99 million, with a year-over-year increase of 10.5% [4] - Insecticides revenue was $409 million, below the estimated $447.85 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 6.4% [4] - Fungicides revenue was $222 million, below the estimated $272.74 million, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8% [4] - Soybean Seed revenue was $152 million, below the estimated $174.91 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 7.3% [4] - Corn Seed revenue was $586 million, exceeding the estimated $411.07 million, representing an 86% year-over-year increase [4] - Other oilseeds Seed revenue was $141 million, above the estimated $122.51 million, with a year-over-year increase of 4.4% [4] Operating Performance - Operating EBITDA for Seed was -$193 million, better than the estimated -$310.39 million [4] - Operating EBITDA for Corporate was -$37 million, slightly worse than the estimated -$29.64 million [4] Stock Performance - Corteva, Inc. shares returned -3.5% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by 2.1%, indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market [3]

Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, net sales were $2.62 billion, a 13% increase compared to Q3 2024, while organic sales rose by 11% [10][14] - Year-to-date (YTD) net sales reached $13.49 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from 2024, with organic sales up 6% [5][14] - The company reported a loss from continuing operations of $308 million in Q3 2025, an improvement from a loss of $519 million in Q3 2024 [12][14] - Operating EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $49 million, a 149% increase year-over-year [12][14] Segment Performance - Crop Protection segment net sales for Q3 2025 were approximately $1.70 billion, up 4% from Q3 2024, driven by a 5% increase in volume [19][21] - Seed segment net sales were $917 million in Q3 2025, up from $691 million in Q3 2024, with a 27% increase in volume [15][21] - Crop Protection YTD net sales were approximately $5.33 billion, a 3% increase from the same period in 2024 [21][24] - Seed YTD net sales reached $8.16 billion, a 5% increase from 2024, with a 3% increase in price/mix and a 4% increase in volume [15][24] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to separate into two independent public companies by the second half of 2026, with "New Corteva" focusing on crop protection and "SpinCo" on advanced genetics [7][8] - The separation is expected to enhance long-term value through tailored innovation and capital allocation strategies [6][13] - Full-year 2025 guidance has been raised, with net sales expected between $17.7 billion and $17.9 billion, and operating EBITDA projected between $3.8 billion and $3.9 billion [5][26] Market Outlook - The global agricultural outlook remains mixed, with strong demand but pressured commodity prices and farmer margins [25][26] - The company anticipates a large crop production year, with record demand leading to low global corn stock levels [25][26] - Global crop protection industry volumes have stabilized, with signs of price stabilization emerging [26]

Core Insights - Corteva, Inc. will release its third quarter 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, after market close, with a live webcast presentation scheduled for November 5, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1][2] Company Overview - Corteva, Inc. is a global pure-play agriculture company focused on delivering innovative solutions to address significant agricultural challenges, leveraging a unique distribution strategy and a diverse mix of seed, crop protection, and digital products [3] - The company aims to maximize productivity for farmers while collaborating with stakeholders across the food system, ensuring sustainable progress for future generations [3]

Core Viewpoint - Corteva plans to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies: New Corteva (Crop Protection) and SpinCo (Seed) to enhance focus and growth opportunities for both segments [2][3][4] Company Overview - Corteva has established itself as a leader in the agriculture technology sector, focusing on innovation and operational excellence [4][6] - The separation aims to create two distinct market leaders, each with tailored capital allocation strategies and growth priorities [3][5] Strategic Rationale - The separation is seen as a logical step to maximize long-term value creation by allowing each business to focus on its own market dynamics and growth strategies [5][7] - New Corteva will emphasize differentiated, innovative solutions, particularly in the biologicals segment, which is the fastest-growing market area [6][8] Financial Projections - Estimated net sales for New Corteva in 2025 are projected to be $7.8 billion, accounting for 44% of Corteva's total net sales [6][10] - SpinCo is expected to generate $9.9 billion in net sales in 2025, representing 56% of Corteva's total net sales [10][17] Transaction Details - The separation is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026 and is intended to qualify as a tax-free transaction for U.S. federal tax purposes [6][10][11] - The transaction is subject to various conditions, including board approval and legal opinions regarding its tax-free nature [11] Leadership and Management - Current Corteva Chair Greg Page will lead New Corteva, while CEO Chuck Magro will head SpinCo, with full management teams to be announced later [3][4]

Financial Performance - Q2 2025 - Net sales increased by 6% to $6.456 billion compared to $6.112 billion in 2Q 2024[35] - Operating EBITDA increased by 13% to $2.164 billion with an Operating EBITDA margin of 33.5%, a 215 bps increase[35] - Operating EPS increased by 20% to $2.20[35] Financial Performance - 1H 2025 - Net sales increased by 3% to $10.873 billion compared to $10.604 billion in 1H 2024[20, 94] - Operating EBITDA increased by 14% to $3.353 billion with an Operating EBITDA margin of 30.8%, a 301 bps increase[20, 92] Segment Performance - Seed - Seed net sales for 2Q 2025 increased by 5% to $4.537 billion[38] - Seed Operating EBITDA margin for 2Q 2025 was 41.1%, an increase of 186 bps[38] - Seed net sales for 1H 2025 increased by 2% to $7.244 billion[50] - Seed Operating EBITDA margin for 1H 2025 was 37.3%, an increase of 280 bps[50] Segment Performance - Crop Protection - Crop Protection net sales for 2Q 2025 increased by 8% to $1.919 billion[60] - Crop Protection Operating EBITDA margin for 2Q 2025 was 17.4%, an increase of 309 bps[60] - Crop Protection net sales for 1H 2025 increased by 3% to $3.629 billion[69] - Crop Protection Operating EBITDA margin for 1H 2025 was 19.6%, an increase of 355 bps[69] FY 2025 Guidance - Revised Operating EBITDA guidance to $3.75 - $3.85 billion, a 13% increase at the mid-point[27] - Expecting ~150 bps improvement in Operating EBITDA margin[12, 27] - Operating EPS guidance revised to $3.00 - $3.20, a 21% increase at the mid-point[27] - Free Cash Flow Conversion expected to be ~50%[27]

Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, net sales reached $6.46 billion, a 6% increase compared to Q2 2024, with organic sales up 7% [11][8] - GAAP income from continuing operations was $1.38 billion, translating to an EPS of $2.02, while operating EBITDA was $2.16 billion, reflecting a 13% increase year-over-year [10][2] - For the first half of 2025, net sales totaled $10.87 billion, a 3% increase from the same period in 2024, with organic sales up 5% [7][2] Segment Performance - Seed segment net sales for Q2 2025 were $4.54 billion, up from $4.33 billion in Q2 2024, driven by a 3% increase in volume and a 3% increase in price [12][17] - Crop Protection segment net sales were approximately $1.92 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting an 11% increase in volume, although offset by a 2% price decline [20][21] - For the first half of 2025, Crop Protection net sales were approximately $3.63 billion, an 8% volume increase compared to the same period in 2024 [24][25] Market Outlook and Guidance - The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting net sales between $17.6 billion and $17.8 billion, with operating EBITDA projected at $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion [30][8] - The outlook for the Crop Protection market remains stable, with expectations of double-digit volume gains despite low-single-digit pricing headwinds [28][29] - Global corn area is projected to increase by 5% in North America, driven by favorable economics compared to other crops [27][8] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to repurchase approximately $1 billion of shares during 2025, reflecting strong cash flow and balance sheet [6][30] - Continued focus on cost discipline and operational excellence has led to margin expansion and improved profitability [5][6] - The company emphasizes the importance of top-tier seed and crop protection technologies to meet global demand for grain and oilseeds [27][8]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) will report quarterly earnings of $1.89 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, with anticipated revenues of $6.23 billion, showing a 1.9% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 3.1% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Forecasts - Analysts predict 'Revenue- Seed' at $4.46 billion, a change of +3.1% year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenue- Crop Protection' is expected to be $1.80 billion, reflecting a +1% change from the prior year [5]. - 'Revenue- Crop Protection- Other' is forecasted to reach $88.17 million, indicating a significant decline of -48.1% year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenue- Seed- Other' is estimated at $168.43 million, showing a +16.2% increase from the previous year [6]. - 'Revenue- Crop Protection- Herbicides' is projected at $951.43 million, a slight increase of +0.6% [6]. - 'Revenue- Crop Protection- Insecticides' is expected to be $413.11 million, reflecting a -0.5% change [7]. - 'Revenue- Crop Protection- Fungicides' is forecasted at $261.53 million, indicating a +4.6% change [7]. - 'Revenue- Seed- Soybean' is estimated at $1.31 billion, showing a -0.4% change [7]. - 'Revenue- Seed- Corn' is projected at $2.74 billion, reflecting a +2% change [8]. - 'Revenue- Seed- Other oilseeds' is expected to reach $218.94 million, indicating a +17.7% change [8]. Operating Metrics - 'Operating EBITDA- Seed' is expected to be $1.77 billion, compared to $1.70 billion from the previous year [8]. - 'Operating EBITDA- Crop Protection' is projected at $249.65 million, down from $255.00 million reported in the same quarter last year [9]. Stock Performance - Corteva, Inc. shares have decreased by -6.5% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.3% performance [10].

Core Viewpoint - Corteva, Inc. has announced a common stock dividend of $0.18 per share, marking an annual increase of nearly 6% over the previous quarterly dividend, payable on September 15, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Dividend Announcement - The dividend of $0.18 per share is authorized by Corteva's Board of Directors and will be paid to shareholders of record on September 2, 2025 [1] - This marks Corteva's fifth dividend increase since its 2019 spin-off, reflecting the company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders [2] Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - Corteva focuses on margin expansion and sustainable long-term growth through innovation, customer engagement, and disciplined operational execution [2] - The company aims to address pressing agricultural challenges with a balanced mix of seed, crop protection, and digital products and services [4] - Corteva's unique distribution strategy and recognized brands contribute to its market preference and growth potential [4]

Company Overview - Corteva, Inc. is a global pure-play agriculture company focused on delivering solutions for significant agricultural challenges through innovation and customer engagement [3] - The company has a diverse mix of seed, crop protection, and digital products and services, supported by a unique distribution strategy [3] - Corteva aims to maximize productivity for farmers while collaborating with stakeholders in the food system to ensure sustainable progress [3] Upcoming Event - CEO Chuck Magro and CFO David Johnson will present at Wolfe's second annual Materials of the Future conference on June 17, 2025, at 12:20 p.m. Eastern Time [1] - The presentation will be available via live webcast on the Corteva Investor Relations website, with a replay accessible for 24 hours post-event until September 17, 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cement, copper, and incrementally positive on steel and aluminium, while holding a negative view on coal and lithium [1][9]. Core Insights - Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed, reflecting mark-to-market price changes for 1H25, with target price changes ranging from -13% to +12% [1][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for hog pricing/margin in 2H25E due to improved supply discipline [1][9]. Summary by Sector Steel - Earnings forecasts for Baosteel and Angang have been revised up by 1-4% for 2025E, while the loss-making forecast for Maanshan has been cut by 11% [10]. - Maintain Buy on Baosteel with a new target price of Rmb8.8/sh [10]. Coal - The thermal coal market is expected to remain balanced in 2025E, with a decline in demand driven by renewable energy expansion [11]. - Earnings forecasts for Shenhua, Chinacoal, and Yankuang have been cut by 2-11% for 2025E and 10-27% for 2026-27E [12]. Cement - Unit gross profit forecasts for cement have been revised down by Rmb2-6/t for 2025E, but a positive view is maintained for 2H25E due to supply discipline [13]. - Earnings estimates for CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, and CRBMT have been cut by 6% to 18% for 2025E [14]. Aluminum - Earnings estimates for Hongqiao have been revised up by 5-27% for 2025-27E, reflecting higher industry spread forecasts [17]. - Maintain Neutral on Hongqiao with a target price of HK$12.5/sh [17]. Copper - The benchmark copper price forecast has been revised to an average of US$4.20/lb in 2025E and US$4.61/lb in 2026E [18]. - Earnings estimates for CMOC-H/A, JXC-H/A, and MMG have been cut by 1-18% for 2025-26E [18]. Lithium - Earnings estimates for Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yongxing have been cut by 3-4% for 2025E due to lower lithium prices [20]. - Yongxing's 2027E earnings have been cut by 37% based on flat lithium price forecasts [20]. Paper - Earnings forecasts for ND Paper have been revised up by 3-4%, while Sunpaper's earnings have been cut by 3% [22].