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中兴通讯_服务器与存储业务增长稳健;2025 年三季度营收同比增长 5%;维持中性评级
2025-10-30 02:01
Summary of ZTE (0763.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) - **Industry**: Telecommunications and Information Technology Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenues**: Rmb29 billion, up 5% YoY attributed to growth in enterprise, consumer, and overseas telecom businesses [1][2] - **Server and Storage Growth**: Achieved +250% YoY growth in 9M25, contributing to 25% of total revenues [1] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: Reported at 25.9%, lower than the expected 31.0%, due to a short-term revenue mix shift [1][2] - **Net Income**: Rmb264 million, significantly lower than consensus estimates [1][2] - **Operating Profit**: Reported at -Rmb565 million, a decline of 127% compared to expectations [2] - **Pre-tax Income**: Rmb239 million, down 91% from consensus [2] Earnings Revisions - **2025E EPS Estimates**: Revised down by 1% to reflect 3Q25 earnings, with expectations for recovery in 4Q25 [2][3] - **Future Revenue Projections**: - 2025E Revenue: Rmb147.604 billion - 2026E Revenue: Rmb166.111 billion - 2027E Revenue: Rmb181.482 billion [3] Valuation and Price Targets - **Target Price for H-share**: HK$43.6, based on a 19.2x 2026E P/E [5][16] - **Target Price for A-share**: Rmb67.6, based on a 32.4x 2026E P/E [5][16] - **Current Price**: HK$39.56 for H-share, Rmb49.39 for A-share, indicating potential upside of 10.2% and 36.9% respectively [19] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: - Demand fluctuations in telecom infrastructure and 5G BTS building in China - Market share gains in China - Margin improvements [17] - **Non-operating Gains/Losses**: Historical range from a loss of Rmb11 billion to a gain of Rmb1.9 billion, which could impact estimates [17] Industry Dynamics - **Revenue Mix**: Increasing contribution from non-telecom business segments, indicating diversification [6] Conclusion - Despite short-term challenges reflected in 3Q25 results, ZTE is expected to achieve sustainable growth driven by its second curve business development. The company maintains a neutral rating with a fair valuation outlook [1][5]