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U.S. Bancorp Up Nearly 22% in 6 Months: Buy, Hold, or Sell the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-12-29 19:47
Core Viewpoint - U.S. Bancorp's shares have outperformed both the industry and the S&P 500 Index over the past six months, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence [1][7]. Performance Summary - U.S. Bancorp's shares increased by 21.5% in the last six months, surpassing the industry's growth of 20.3% and the S&P 500's 14.5% [1]. - In comparison, Fifth Third Bancorp and M&T Bank Corporation saw their shares rise by 17.7% and 6.9%, respectively, during the same period [1]. Revenue Growth - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% in revenue over the five years ending in 2024, with continued growth expected in 2025 [5][9]. - Net interest income (NII) growth is supported by improved deposit trends and investment portfolio repositioning, with projections for three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 likely to stabilize funding costs and encourage loan growth [8]. Inorganic Growth Initiatives - U.S. Bancorp has made several acquisitions and partnerships to enhance its market presence and service offerings, including the acquisition of Salucro Healthcare Solutions and partnerships to expand its embedded finance capabilities [10][11]. - Recent initiatives include enhancing consumer engagement through partnerships and expanding its point-of-sale lending platform [10]. Liquidity and Capital Deployment - As of September 30, 2025, U.S. Bancorp maintained a strong liquidity position with cash and due from banks totaling $66.6 billion, significantly exceeding short-term borrowings of $15.4 billion [12]. - The company has increased its quarterly dividend by 4% to 52 cents per share, with a current dividend yield of 3.78%, outperforming the industry average [13]. Digital and AI Investments - U.S. Bancorp is investing in AI and digital infrastructure to drive profitability, including the launch of the U.S. Bank Liquidity Manager and enhancements to its SinglePoint platform [17][18]. - These initiatives are expected to improve operational efficiency and support long-term growth, with management anticipating over 200 basis points of positive operating leverage in 2025 [19]. Expense Trends - Non-interest expenses have grown at a CAGR of 6.1% from 2019 to 2024, primarily due to higher merger costs and technology investments, although expenses declined in the first nine months of 2025 [20]. Loan Concentration Risk - As of September 30, 2025, 51.4% of U.S. Bancorp's loan portfolio consisted of commercial loans, which may pose asset quality risks in a changing economic environment [23]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised upward, projecting growth of 14.3% for 2025 and 7.8% for 2026 [25].