Cheerios maker General Mills cut its annual sales and profit forecasts, citing weak consumer sentiment and a shift toward healthier and lower-cost food options that are pressuring demand for packaged products. "Weak consumer sentiment, heightened uncertainty, and significant volatility have weighed on category growth and impacted consumer purchase patterns, resulting in a slower pace and higher cost of volume recovery than initially expected," the company said in a statement ahead of its presentation at the ...

Core Thesis - Conagra Brands, Inc. is viewed positively due to its diversified portfolio and potential for future growth despite current challenges [1][2] Company Overview - Conagra Brands, Inc. is a U.S.-based packaged food company with a diverse range of products across Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice segments [2] - The company boasts a strong brand lineup including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Marie Callender's, and Slim Jim, supported by over 40 manufacturing facilities and approximately 18,300 employees [2] Current Challenges - The company faces margin pressures due to persistent commodity inflation in proteins and tariffs on tin-plate steel and aluminum, which have increased costs by roughly 3% [3] - Management anticipates a 2% year-over-year decline in organic net sales, exacerbated by temporary supply chain disruptions in frozen meals [3] Future Outlook - Conagra is implementing a "Fuel for Growth" initiative aimed at modernizing the supply chain, targeting $1 billion in cumulative cost savings over three years [4] - Successful execution of this initiative could restore margins and enhance free cash flow generation [4] Investment Appeal - As a consumer staples company, Conagra offers recession resilience, with stable demand for affordable at-home food products during economic downturns [5] - The stock features an approximately 8% dividend yield, appealing to income-oriented investors [5] Innovation Potential - The company plans to launch over 50 new frozen products, expand gluten-free offerings, and eliminate artificial dyes by the end of 2025 [6] - While historical revenue growth has been modest, successful innovation and cost-saving measures could stabilize performance and support a gradual rerating of the stock [6]

Company Overview - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) has a market cap of $8.9 billion and is a leading U.S. consumer packaged foods company, producing a variety of grocery, frozen, refrigerated, and snack products [1] - The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Chicago, operating across retail, international, and foodservice channels with a strong portfolio of brands such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, and Slim Jim [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, CAG stock has declined by 29%, while the S&P 500 Index has gained 15.5% [2] - Year-to-date, CAG shares are up 6.2%, outperforming the S&P 500's increase of 1.9% [2] - CAG shares have also lagged behind the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLP) 7% rise over the past 52 weeks [3] Financial Challenges - The company's underperformance is attributed to weak fundamentals and soft consumer demand, leading to declining sales volumes and limited pricing power in a competitive packaged-foods sector [5] - Organic net sales and earnings have been pressured by cost inflation, tariffs, supply chain challenges, and consumers shifting to private-label alternatives, negatively impacting margins and investor confidence [5] - Revenue growth expectations are muted, with analysts predicting a 25.2% year-over-year decrease in adjusted EPS to $1.72 for the fiscal year ending in May 2026 [6] Analyst Sentiment - Among 16 analysts covering CAG, the consensus rating is a "Hold," consisting of two "Strong Buy" ratings, 11 "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and two "Strong Sells" [7] - Morgan Stanley analyst Megan Alexander Clapp has cut her price target on CAG to $18 from $19 while maintaining an "Equal-Weight" rating, citing a challenging outlook for U.S. food stocks [8]

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. is facing significant challenges in the current market environment, with competitive pressures increasing and a tough outlook for US food stocks [2][4] - The company has maintained its full-year sales and profit guidance despite a quieter second quarter, indicating resilience in its operations [3] - Conagra's stock has declined approximately 34% over the past year due to various factors, including supply chain disruptions and changing consumer preferences [4] Financial Performance - Conagra reported a quarterly loss primarily due to a $968 million non-cash impairment charge linked to a prolonged drop in its share price [3] - The company is prioritizing cash flow generation to reduce debt rather than pursuing acquisitions at this time [4] Market Position - Conagra is recognized as one of the 14 Best Mid-Cap Dividend Stocks to Buy Now, highlighting its potential as an investment [1] - The company operates across multiple segments, including Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice, showcasing its diversified portfolio [5] Competitive Landscape - Morgan Stanley has lowered its price target for Conagra to $18 from $19, reflecting the increasing competitive pressure in the food sector [2] - The market is seeing a shift towards value-driven pricing and heavier promotions, which may impact Conagra's market position moving forward [2]

Company Overview - Conagra Brands is a packaged food company with well-known brands such as Slim Jim, Healthy Choice, and Duncan Hines, but it lacks true category leaders [2] - The company is currently facing challenges, as indicated by a significant decline in stock price, down over 35% from its 52-week highs [1] Financial Performance - In the fiscal second quarter of 2026, Conagra's overall sales decreased by 6.8%, with organic sales down 3%, reflecting broader struggles in the consumer staples sector [3] - The company reported a one-time impairment charge of $0.94 per share, resulting in a loss of $1.39 per share [3][4] - The impairment charge suggests that the company's brands are not valued as highly as previously believed, impacting shareholders by reducing book value per share [4] Dividend Analysis - Conagra's current dividend yield stands at 8.2%, significantly higher than the average yield of 2.8% for consumer staples stocks [1][8] - The quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share was covered by adjusted earnings in the fiscal second quarter, but the dividend payout ratio has exceeded 100% for a concerning period [5][7] - The board has previously reduced dividends when payout ratios spiked, and the lack of dividend increases in recent years raises concerns about sustainability [7] Market Position and Comparison - The overall business position of Conagra is not among the best in the consumer staples sector, and it may struggle to improve given its brand portfolio [5] - For investors seeking reliable dividends, Conagra may not be the best option, especially when compared to better-positioned companies like PepsiCo, which has shown revenue growth and a more reliable dividend history [9][10]

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is experiencing a difficult environment characterized by a slowdown in consumer spending, elevated inflation, and tariffs, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) and nearing a 5-year low [1] Financial Performance - In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Conagra reported earnings of $0.45, beating the Zacks Consensus of $0.44, marking the second consecutive earnings beat [2] - Net sales decreased by 6.8%, with organic net sales down by 3.0%, although the company is optimistic about a return to net sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year [3] Guidance and Inflation - Conagra reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting organic net sales to change by a loss of 1% to 1% compared to fiscal 2025, with earnings projected between $1.70 and $1.85 [4] - The company anticipates continued elevated costs of goods sold inflation, with total cost of goods inflation expected to reach 7% in fiscal 2026, influenced by U.S. tariffs increasing costs by 3% before mitigations [5] Analyst Revisions - Analysts have cut fiscal 2026 earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus falling to $1.72 from $1.75, indicating a 25.2% decline in earnings [6] - For fiscal 2027, estimates were also reduced, with the Zacks Consensus dropping to $1.79 from $1.86, reflecting a projected earnings growth of 4.2% [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Conagra's shares have declined significantly over the past year, now near 5-year lows [10] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.6, suggesting it may be undervalued [12] Dividend Information - Conagra pays a dividend of $1.40 per share, yielding 8.5%, with dividends paid in the first half of fiscal 2026 remaining flat year over year at $335 million [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects organic net sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year, with positive momentum observed in December [11][12] - Operating profit and margin performance in the first half of the year has been good, with favorable tariff timing and chicken inflation, although there are offsets with beef and pork [21][22] - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7% for the year, with core inflation slightly above 4% and gross tariff inflation around 3% [42][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The frozen and snacks segments are identified as growth domains, with snacks already showing robust growth and frozen aiming to reclaim market share lost due to previous supply constraints [31][32] - The company is focusing on productivity improvements, with productivity running at about 5% [52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a return to growth in the snacks category, benefiting from a bounce back in convenience stores [31] - Frozen single-serve meals market share is close to 53%, indicating strong recovery and growth potential [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing Project Catalyst, which focuses on re-engineering core business processes using technology, particularly AI, to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [25][26] - The company is committed to margin expansion, particularly in the frozen segment, through productivity improvements and supply chain resiliency investments [52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the volatility in the operating environment and has guided to a wider range for EPS to navigate uncertainties [23][82] - The company is optimistic about the second half of the fiscal year, expecting strong promotional activity and improved market conditions [85] Other Important Information - The company has completed the baked chicken facility, which is expected to enhance production efficiency and margin [100] - An impairment charge was taken due to a sustained decline in stock price, which required a reassessment of goodwill and brand value [102][103] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for organic sales growth in Q3 - Management expects positive organic net sales growth in the second half, with momentum building in December [11][12] Question: Clarification on annual outlook and impact of Ardent - Management feels confident in offsetting the shortfall from Ardent and maintaining EPS guidance [22][23] Question: Insights on Project Catalyst and cost savings - Project Catalyst aims to automate business processes for improved efficiency, with expected returns on investment [25][26] Question: Consumption trends and growth outlook for fiscal 2027 - Management sees potential for growth in frozen and snacks, with strong marketing plans in place [31][34] Question: Impact of competitors' price cuts - The company has not rolled back prices to move volume but has maintained pricing to support promotional activities [40][41] Question: Inflation guidance and its components - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7%, with some favorable trends in chicken but increased costs in beef and pork [42][44] Question: AMP spending and consumer value-seeking behavior - The company will emphasize relative value in advertising to attract consumers [74][75] Question: Weather impact on sales - Management noted that colder weather has positively affected sales trends in the canned food segment [79][80] Question: EPS range and uncertainties - Management indicated that the EPS range remains wide due to ongoing uncertainties in the market [82][83] Question: Portfolio management and M&A strategy - The company is open to reshaping its portfolio for value creation but is currently focused on debt reduction [95] Question: Completion of the baked chicken facility and margin improvement - The transition to in-house production is expected to enhance margins, with the project on track [100][101]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects organic net sales growth in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by improved shipment flows and easier comparisons in the frozen segment [9][10] - Operating profit and margin performance in the first half of the year were strong, with favorable tariff timing and productivity programs contributing positively [18][21] - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7% for the year, with core inflation slightly above 4% and tariff inflation around 3% [41][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The frozen and snacks segments are identified as key growth areas, with snacks already showing robust growth and frozen aiming to reclaim market share lost during supply constraints [28][30] - The company is focusing on high-quality promotional activities in the frozen segment, which were limited in the previous year due to supply issues [30][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a return to growth in the snacks segment, benefiting from increased convenience store traffic [28] - The frozen segment's market share is recovering, with single-serve meals approaching a 53% market share, indicating strong competitive positioning [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing Project Catalyst, aimed at re-engineering core business processes using technology and AI to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [23][24] - The focus remains on debt reduction and evaluating portfolio opportunities, including potential divestitures and inbounds, to create shareholder value [92] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive organic sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year, despite a volatile environment [21][22] - The company is cautious about predicting inflation trends but anticipates a normalization in protein prices, which have been a significant cost driver [88][89] Other Important Information - The company completed a significant impairment charge due to a sustained decline in stock price, necessitating a reassessment of goodwill and brand values [100][101] - The baked chicken facility is now complete, with plans to repatriate production to improve margins [96][99] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for organic sales growth in Q3 - Management expects positive organic net sales growth in the second half, with improved shipment flows and promotional activities [9][10] Question: Impact of competitors' price cuts - The company has not rolled back prices to move volume but has maintained pricing to support promotional activities [37][38] Question: Inflation guidance and its components - The company maintains a gross inflation guidance of 7%, with core inflation slightly above 4% and tariff inflation around 3% [41][42] Question: AMP spending and its impact - Increased AMP spending will emphasize relative value in marketing, aiming to attract value-seeking consumers [72][73] Question: Trends in frozen and refrigerated segments - Management anticipates a strong second half for frozen products, with market shares recovering and promotional activities ramping up [83][84] Question: Portfolio management and potential M&A - The company is open to reshaping its portfolio for value creation but is currently focused on debt reduction [92] Question: Completion of the baked chicken facility - The facility is complete, and production will transition back in-house, which is expected to improve margins [96][99]

Financial Performance - Q2 FY26 - Conagra's Q2 FY26 organic net sales decreased by 30% compared to the previous year, totaling $2975 million[51, 52, 53] - Adjusted EPS for Q2 FY26 was $045, a decrease of 357% year-over-year[51] - Adjusted operating margin for Q2 FY26 was 113%, a decrease of 406 bps compared to the previous year[51, 54, 55, 57] - For H1 FY26, organic net sales decreased by 19% to $5586 million[51, 76] - Adjusted EPS for H1 FY26 was $085, a decrease of 309% year-over-year[51] Segment Performance - Q2 FY26 - Grocery & Snacks net sales were $1209 million, with a 15% organic net sales decrease[53] - Refrigerated & Frozen net sales were $1251 million, with a 51% organic net sales decrease[53] - International net sales were $230 million, with a 29% organic net sales decrease[53] - Foodservice net sales were $288 million, with a 02% organic net sales increase[53] Key Business Trends - Frozen retail volume sales showed a return to growth on a two-year basis, with a +08% change in Q2 FY26[14, 15] - 90% of frozen products held or gained volume share vs 2 years ago[15] - Conagra's frozen single-serve meals volume share of category was 529% in Q2 FY26, a +05 percentage point change vs 2 years ago[18, 19, 20, 21] - Conagra's frozen vegetables volume % change was +91% vs 2 years ago[22, 23] - Conagra's frozen vegetables volume share of category was 191% in Q2 FY26, a +13 percentage point change vs 2 years ago[24, 25]

Company Overview - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) has a market capitalization of $8.5 billion and is a leading consumer packaged foods company based in Chicago, Illinois, with a diverse portfolio of over 70 well-known brands [1] - The company's operations span various channels including grocery, snacks, frozen, refrigerated, international, and foodservice, serving both retail and commercial customers [1] Market Position - CAG is classified as a mid-cap stock, fitting the category of companies valued between $2 billion and $10 billion [2] - The company is enhancing its market presence through brand modernization and product innovation, focusing on refreshing legacy franchises and introducing trend-driven offerings [2] - This balanced approach across value and premium segments, supported by a robust distribution network, allows Conagra to reach a broad and diverse consumer base [2] Stock Performance - Shares of Conagra have decreased by 37.8% from their 52-week high of $28.51 and have declined 7.4% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has rallied by 3.7% in the same period [3] - Over the past 52 weeks, Conagra's shares have plunged 36.8%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's gain of 12.9% [4] - The stock has also slid 20.3% over the past six months, underperforming the S&P 500's decline of 12.8% [4] Technical Analysis - The stock continues to show downside pressure, having traded below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for most of the past year [5] Fundamental Challenges - Conagra has underperformed the broader market due to weakening fundamentals, with declining sales volumes indicating weaker consumer demand and limited pricing power in a competitive staples market [6] - Analysts expect revenue to contract, raising concerns that newer product launches are not sufficiently strong to reaccelerate growth [6] - Past growth initiatives have yielded modest returns on invested capital, leading to doubts about capital efficiency and long-term value creation [6]