Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) is included among the 14 Best Mid-Cap Dividend Stocks to Buy Now. Morgan Stanley Sees Rising Competitive Pressure Weighing on Conagra (CAG) On January 16, Morgan Stanley analyst Megan Alexander Clapp lowered her price target on Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) to $18 from $19, while keeping an Equal Weight rating on the shares. She said the outlook remains tough, calling it “an already challenging backdrop” for US food stocks. Morgan Stanley also warned that competitive pre ...

Company Overview - Conagra Brands is a packaged food company with well-known brands such as Slim Jim, Healthy Choice, and Duncan Hines, but it lacks true category leaders [2] - The company is currently facing challenges, as indicated by a significant decline in stock price, down over 35% from its 52-week highs [1] Financial Performance - In the fiscal second quarter of 2026, Conagra's overall sales decreased by 6.8%, with organic sales down 3%, reflecting broader struggles in the consumer staples sector [3] - The company reported a one-time impairment charge of $0.94 per share, resulting in a loss of $1.39 per share [3][4] - The impairment charge suggests that the company's brands are not valued as highly as previously believed, impacting shareholders by reducing book value per share [4] Dividend Analysis - Conagra's current dividend yield stands at 8.2%, significantly higher than the average yield of 2.8% for consumer staples stocks [1][8] - The quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share was covered by adjusted earnings in the fiscal second quarter, but the dividend payout ratio has exceeded 100% for a concerning period [5][7] - The board has previously reduced dividends when payout ratios spiked, and the lack of dividend increases in recent years raises concerns about sustainability [7] Market Position and Comparison - The overall business position of Conagra is not among the best in the consumer staples sector, and it may struggle to improve given its brand portfolio [5] - For investors seeking reliable dividends, Conagra may not be the best option, especially when compared to better-positioned companies like PepsiCo, which has shown revenue growth and a more reliable dividend history [9][10]

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is experiencing a difficult environment characterized by a slowdown in consumer spending, elevated inflation, and tariffs, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) and nearing a 5-year low [1] Financial Performance - In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Conagra reported earnings of $0.45, beating the Zacks Consensus of $0.44, marking the second consecutive earnings beat [2] - Net sales decreased by 6.8%, with organic net sales down by 3.0%, although the company is optimistic about a return to net sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year [3] Guidance and Inflation - Conagra reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting organic net sales to change by a loss of 1% to 1% compared to fiscal 2025, with earnings projected between $1.70 and $1.85 [4] - The company anticipates continued elevated costs of goods sold inflation, with total cost of goods inflation expected to reach 7% in fiscal 2026, influenced by U.S. tariffs increasing costs by 3% before mitigations [5] Analyst Revisions - Analysts have cut fiscal 2026 earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus falling to $1.72 from $1.75, indicating a 25.2% decline in earnings [6] - For fiscal 2027, estimates were also reduced, with the Zacks Consensus dropping to $1.79 from $1.86, reflecting a projected earnings growth of 4.2% [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Conagra's shares have declined significantly over the past year, now near 5-year lows [10] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.6, suggesting it may be undervalued [12] Dividend Information - Conagra pays a dividend of $1.40 per share, yielding 8.5%, with dividends paid in the first half of fiscal 2026 remaining flat year over year at $335 million [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects organic net sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year, with positive momentum observed in December [11][12] - Operating profit and margin performance in the first half of the year has been good, with favorable tariff timing and chicken inflation, although there are offsets with beef and pork [21][22] - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7% for the year, with core inflation slightly above 4% and gross tariff inflation around 3% [42][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The frozen and snacks segments are identified as growth domains, with snacks already showing robust growth and frozen aiming to reclaim market share lost due to previous supply constraints [31][32] - The company is focusing on productivity improvements, with productivity running at about 5% [52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a return to growth in the snacks category, benefiting from a bounce back in convenience stores [31] - Frozen single-serve meals market share is close to 53%, indicating strong recovery and growth potential [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing Project Catalyst, which focuses on re-engineering core business processes using technology, particularly AI, to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [25][26] - The company is committed to margin expansion, particularly in the frozen segment, through productivity improvements and supply chain resiliency investments [52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the volatility in the operating environment and has guided to a wider range for EPS to navigate uncertainties [23][82] - The company is optimistic about the second half of the fiscal year, expecting strong promotional activity and improved market conditions [85] Other Important Information - The company has completed the baked chicken facility, which is expected to enhance production efficiency and margin [100] - An impairment charge was taken due to a sustained decline in stock price, which required a reassessment of goodwill and brand value [102][103] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for organic sales growth in Q3 - Management expects positive organic net sales growth in the second half, with momentum building in December [11][12] Question: Clarification on annual outlook and impact of Ardent - Management feels confident in offsetting the shortfall from Ardent and maintaining EPS guidance [22][23] Question: Insights on Project Catalyst and cost savings - Project Catalyst aims to automate business processes for improved efficiency, with expected returns on investment [25][26] Question: Consumption trends and growth outlook for fiscal 2027 - Management sees potential for growth in frozen and snacks, with strong marketing plans in place [31][34] Question: Impact of competitors' price cuts - The company has not rolled back prices to move volume but has maintained pricing to support promotional activities [40][41] Question: Inflation guidance and its components - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7%, with some favorable trends in chicken but increased costs in beef and pork [42][44] Question: AMP spending and consumer value-seeking behavior - The company will emphasize relative value in advertising to attract consumers [74][75] Question: Weather impact on sales - Management noted that colder weather has positively affected sales trends in the canned food segment [79][80] Question: EPS range and uncertainties - Management indicated that the EPS range remains wide due to ongoing uncertainties in the market [82][83] Question: Portfolio management and M&A strategy - The company is open to reshaping its portfolio for value creation but is currently focused on debt reduction [95] Question: Completion of the baked chicken facility and margin improvement - The transition to in-house production is expected to enhance margins, with the project on track [100][101]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects organic net sales growth in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by improved shipment flows and easier comparisons in the frozen segment [9][10] - Operating profit and margin performance in the first half of the year were strong, with favorable tariff timing and productivity programs contributing positively [18][21] - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7% for the year, with core inflation slightly above 4% and tariff inflation around 3% [41][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The frozen and snacks segments are identified as key growth areas, with snacks already showing robust growth and frozen aiming to reclaim market share lost during supply constraints [28][30] - The company is focusing on high-quality promotional activities in the frozen segment, which were limited in the previous year due to supply issues [30][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a return to growth in the snacks segment, benefiting from increased convenience store traffic [28] - The frozen segment's market share is recovering, with single-serve meals approaching a 53% market share, indicating strong competitive positioning [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing Project Catalyst, aimed at re-engineering core business processes using technology and AI to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [23][24] - The focus remains on debt reduction and evaluating portfolio opportunities, including potential divestitures and inbounds, to create shareholder value [92] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive organic sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year, despite a volatile environment [21][22] - The company is cautious about predicting inflation trends but anticipates a normalization in protein prices, which have been a significant cost driver [88][89] Other Important Information - The company completed a significant impairment charge due to a sustained decline in stock price, necessitating a reassessment of goodwill and brand values [100][101] - The baked chicken facility is now complete, with plans to repatriate production to improve margins [96][99] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for organic sales growth in Q3 - Management expects positive organic net sales growth in the second half, with improved shipment flows and promotional activities [9][10] Question: Impact of competitors' price cuts - The company has not rolled back prices to move volume but has maintained pricing to support promotional activities [37][38] Question: Inflation guidance and its components - The company maintains a gross inflation guidance of 7%, with core inflation slightly above 4% and tariff inflation around 3% [41][42] Question: AMP spending and its impact - Increased AMP spending will emphasize relative value in marketing, aiming to attract value-seeking consumers [72][73] Question: Trends in frozen and refrigerated segments - Management anticipates a strong second half for frozen products, with market shares recovering and promotional activities ramping up [83][84] Question: Portfolio management and potential M&A - The company is open to reshaping its portfolio for value creation but is currently focused on debt reduction [92] Question: Completion of the baked chicken facility - The facility is complete, and production will transition back in-house, which is expected to improve margins [96][99]

Financial Performance - Q2 FY26 - Conagra's Q2 FY26 organic net sales decreased by 30% compared to the previous year, totaling $2975 million[51, 52, 53] - Adjusted EPS for Q2 FY26 was $045, a decrease of 357% year-over-year[51] - Adjusted operating margin for Q2 FY26 was 113%, a decrease of 406 bps compared to the previous year[51, 54, 55, 57] - For H1 FY26, organic net sales decreased by 19% to $5586 million[51, 76] - Adjusted EPS for H1 FY26 was $085, a decrease of 309% year-over-year[51] Segment Performance - Q2 FY26 - Grocery & Snacks net sales were $1209 million, with a 15% organic net sales decrease[53] - Refrigerated & Frozen net sales were $1251 million, with a 51% organic net sales decrease[53] - International net sales were $230 million, with a 29% organic net sales decrease[53] - Foodservice net sales were $288 million, with a 02% organic net sales increase[53] Key Business Trends - Frozen retail volume sales showed a return to growth on a two-year basis, with a +08% change in Q2 FY26[14, 15] - 90% of frozen products held or gained volume share vs 2 years ago[15] - Conagra's frozen single-serve meals volume share of category was 529% in Q2 FY26, a +05 percentage point change vs 2 years ago[18, 19, 20, 21] - Conagra's frozen vegetables volume % change was +91% vs 2 years ago[22, 23] - Conagra's frozen vegetables volume share of category was 191% in Q2 FY26, a +13 percentage point change vs 2 years ago[24, 25]

Company Overview - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) has a market capitalization of $8.5 billion and is a leading consumer packaged foods company based in Chicago, Illinois, with a diverse portfolio of over 70 well-known brands [1] - The company's operations span various channels including grocery, snacks, frozen, refrigerated, international, and foodservice, serving both retail and commercial customers [1] Market Position - CAG is classified as a mid-cap stock, fitting the category of companies valued between $2 billion and $10 billion [2] - The company is enhancing its market presence through brand modernization and product innovation, focusing on refreshing legacy franchises and introducing trend-driven offerings [2] - This balanced approach across value and premium segments, supported by a robust distribution network, allows Conagra to reach a broad and diverse consumer base [2] Stock Performance - Shares of Conagra have decreased by 37.8% from their 52-week high of $28.51 and have declined 7.4% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has rallied by 3.7% in the same period [3] - Over the past 52 weeks, Conagra's shares have plunged 36.8%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's gain of 12.9% [4] - The stock has also slid 20.3% over the past six months, underperforming the S&P 500's decline of 12.8% [4] Technical Analysis - The stock continues to show downside pressure, having traded below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for most of the past year [5] Fundamental Challenges - Conagra has underperformed the broader market due to weakening fundamentals, with declining sales volumes indicating weaker consumer demand and limited pricing power in a competitive staples market [6] - Analysts expect revenue to contract, raising concerns that newer product launches are not sufficiently strong to reaccelerate growth [6] - Past growth initiatives have yielded modest returns on invested capital, leading to doubts about capital efficiency and long-term value creation [6]

Core Insights - Thompson, Siegel, and Walmsley (TSW) has increased its stake in Conagra Brands, making it the 7th-largest holding in their portfolio, with a total position of 5,269,532 shares valued at $96.48 million as of the end of the third quarter [1][2]. Company Overview - Conagra Brands is a leading North American packaged foods company with a diversified product lineup and strong brand portfolio [6]. - The company reported a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $11.45 billion and a net income of $850.10 million, with a dividend yield of 8.13% [4]. Recent Performance - As of December 1, 2025, Conagra Brands shares were priced at $17.22, reflecting a 33% decline over the prior year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 49 percentage points [3]. - The stock is currently trading at 0.7 times sales, the lowest since 2015, and at 7 times free cash flow, close to its lowest in the last two decades [11]. Investment Rationale - TSW's investment in Conagra aligns with a value investing strategy, as the company is seen as stable despite declining sales growth rates and challenges from GLP-1 medicines impacting food companies [10]. - The company holds $7.5 billion in long-term debt against a market capitalization of $8.2 billion, necessitating continued debt repayment to ensure the safety of its high-yield dividend and overall company longevity [12]. Product Portfolio - Conagra offers a broad portfolio of branded packaged foods, including frozen meals, snacks, and shelf-stable grocery products under well-known brands such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, and Slim Jim [9]. - The company generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and distribution of consumer food products across various channels, leveraging scale and brand recognition [9].

Core Viewpoint - Conagra Brands, Inc. is facing significant stock underperformance despite a strong market position and positive quarterly results, with ongoing challenges from inflation and tariffs impacting future earnings expectations [1][2][4]. Company Overview - Conagra Brands has a market capitalization of $8.2 billion and operates in the North American packaged foods sector with a diverse brand portfolio including Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Slim Jim, Reddi-wip, and Marie Callender's [1]. - The company operates across four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice, focusing on innovative food products that cater to changing consumer preferences [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Conagra's stock has decreased by 41.1%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has increased by 18.5% during the same period [2]. - Year-to-date, the stock is down 38.3%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 15.1% [2]. Recent Financial Results - On October 1, Conagra reported Q1 2026 revenue of $2.63 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.39, exceeding expectations [4]. - The company has maintained its annual forecasts despite facing inflation and tariff pressures, indicating confidence in its pricing actions and cost-saving initiatives to offset rising costs [4]. Earnings Expectations - For the fiscal year ending in May 2026, analysts project a 23.5% year-over-year decrease in adjusted EPS to $1.76 [5]. - Conagra's earnings surprise history is mixed, with two beats and two misses in the last four quarters [5]. Analyst Ratings - Among 17 analysts covering Conagra, the consensus rating is a "Hold," with two "Strong Buy," 13 "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and one "Strong Sell" [5]. - Morgan Stanley has set a price target of $21, with a mean price target of $20.53 indicating a nearly 20% premium to current levels, while the highest target of $27 suggests a potential upside of 57.8% [6].

Core Insights - The consumer goods sector is currently facing pressure due to macroeconomic concerns, but many stocks are oversold, presenting potential investment opportunities [2][3] Group 1: Conagra Brands - Conagra Brands is a packaged foods company known for brands like Duncan Hines and Healthy Choice, facing negative sentiment due to inflation, low growth, and high debt [5] - The company trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.9, which is lower than peers like General Mills at 13.8, indicating potential for valuation improvement [6] - Conagra offers a forward dividend yield of 7.5%, providing steady returns while awaiting a turnaround [6][8] Group 2: Keurig Dr. Pepper - Keurig Dr. Pepper is under market pressure due to concerns over its $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's and subsequent plans to split into two companies [9] - The transaction is seen as complex but has the potential to unlock and create value, with the stock trading at less than 12 times forward earnings, a discount compared to industry peers [10]