Core Viewpoint - Citizens raised its price target on Alphabet to $385 from $340 while maintaining a Market Outperform rating, driven by improving search fundamentals and multiple medium-term growth drivers [1] Group 1: Price Target and Rating - Citizens increased Alphabet's price target to $385 from $340, maintaining a Market Outperform rating [1] - The firm's reassessment of estimates and valuation was prompted by Alphabet's shares more than doubling from their May lows [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth and Catalysts - Citizens believes Google could further accelerate search revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which is a key near-term question for investors [2] - Medium-term catalysts identified include Gemini, Google Cloud, Waymo, and custom TPUs, expected to support broader results inflection in 2026 and 2027 [3] Group 3: Search Performance and Advertising - Query growth in search appears to be accelerating due to AI Overviews, AI Mode, and Gemini, leading to higher engagement [3] - Smart Bidding Exploration is expanding Google's advertising load by connecting advertisers to user intent rather than keywords, increasing the proportion of queries linked to ads [3] Group 4: Q3 Performance and Future Expectations - The third quarter marked the first full period with Smart Bidding Exploration, and the fourth quarter is expected to benefit similarly, supported by a stable macro backdrop for holiday advertising spend [4]

Core Viewpoint - Citizens JMP analyst Andrew Boone upgraded Alphabet from Market Perform to Market Outperform with a price forecast of $220, driven by the belief that AI will positively impact Google's search capabilities [1]. Group 1: AI Impact on Search - AI is expected to expand Google's search opportunities by addressing a broader range of queries and enhancing monetization through improved user intent inference [2]. - Boone highlights that OpenAI's platforms have 800 million weekly active users, significantly less than Google's 5 billion+ active users [3]. - Google's AI Overviews, launched in May 2025, demonstrated a 10% query growth in testing [3]. Group 2: User Growth Projections - Boone projects that AI Overviews will grow from 1.5 billion monthly users in Q1 2025 to 4 billion by Q3 2025, potentially covering two-thirds of all queries by the next quarter [4]. - Assuming a sustained 10% query growth, Boone anticipates a mid-single-digit query growth tailwind for Google in Q3 2025 [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - While ChatGPT offsets some growth, Boone estimates its subscriber base to be only 20 million by Q2 2025, based on OpenAI's reported $10 billion Annual Recurring Revenue [5]. - AI Overviews' wider distribution is expected to accelerate Google's overall query growth, outpacing ChatGPT's market share capture [6]. Group 4: Advertising Tools and Revenue Growth - Boone expresses optimism about Google's Smart Bidding Exploration and AI Max for Search Campaigns, which allow advertisers to focus on query intent rather than just keywords [7]. - This shift is expected to enable Google to monetize more than the historical ~20% of monetizable searches, leading to an acceleration in search revenue growth for Q2 and Q3 2025 [7]. Group 5: Financial Forecast Adjustments - For Q2 2025, Boone adjusted Alphabet's revenue forecast to $79.9 billion (up from $78.9 billion) and EPS to $2.16 (up from $2.11) [8]. - Boone previously downgraded Google due to potential antitrust penalties but notes that the risk has been largely priced into the stock, leading to the upgrade ahead of the court's decision [9].

Core Insights - Google showcased next-generation AI-driven advertising solutions at the annual Google Marketing Live event, aiming to reshape the future of advertising and shopping by enhancing precision, creativity, and measurable decision-making [1] Group 1: AI Innovations in Advertising - Google introduced a series of innovative AI-driven advertising tools, including Lens, AI Overviews, and AI Mode, to revolutionize search methods and expand advertising reach [1] - The AI Overviews feature will be extended to desktop users in the U.S. and will gradually roll out to more regions on mobile and desktop devices, with testing of ad integration in AI Mode responses already underway [1] Group 2: Creative Tools and Features - Enhanced tools supported by advanced video and image generation models like Veo and Imagen will soon be available on Google Ads and Merchant Center [2] - The new Asset Studio will serve as a unified creative suite for Google Ads, allowing centralized management of visual tools, while "Generated for You" will automatically identify content opportunities for Product Studio merchants [2] Group 3: Campaign Optimization - Google launched AI Max for search ad campaigns, introducing the most significant bidding feature update in a decade, Smart Bidding Exploration, which utilizes AI and flexible Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) targets to uncover high-conversion searches [3] - The AI-driven advertising solutions presented at the event are expected to inject new momentum into the marketing industry, leading to a smarter and more efficient development phase in advertising [3]