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Shopify Slumps Post-Earnings: Buy the Dip in ETFs?
ZACKS· 2026-02-12 16:01
Core Insights - Shopify reported fourth-quarter revenues of $3.67 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.55% and showing a year-over-year increase from $2.81 billion, driven by strong holiday shopping activity [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were 48 cents, slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents but up from 44 cents in the previous year [2] - The company forecasts free-cash-flow margins in the "low-to-mid teens" for the first quarter, slightly below year-ago levels, due to ongoing investments in AI tools [3] Financial Performance - Shopify's gross merchandise volume (GMV) surged 29% year over year to $123.8 billion, surpassing analysts' estimates of $121.3 billion [5] - The company expects first-quarter revenue growth in the "low-thirties percentage range" year over year, exceeding analysts' projected growth of 25.1% [6] Shareholder Actions - Shopify's board approved a $2 billion share repurchase program, indicating management's confidence in its stock [7] - The stock is not heavily indebted, but its valuation remains a concern due to a high price/earnings ratio of 92.20X compared to the Internet – Services industry average of 28.44X [8] Market Context - Shopify's shares have declined by as much as 29.2% over the past month, impacted by broader AI-related concerns in the software sector [4] - Despite fears of an AI-led software rout, Shopify's President believes that platform and infrastructure companies are better positioned than feature-based providers [4] - Investors may consider Shopify-heavy ETFs like ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) and First Trust Dow Jones International Internet ETF (FDNI) to mitigate single-stock risk amid AI-driven volatility [9][10]