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Sunrun Poised To Gain Market Share As Policy Shifts Boost Its Solar Model: Analyst
Benzingaยท 2025-08-18 17:02
Core Viewpoint - RBC Capital upgraded Sunrun (RUN) to Outperform with a price target of $16, citing improved long-term growth visibility due to recent U.S. Treasury guidance that alleviated regulatory uncertainty [1] Group 1: Regulatory and Market Environment - The U.S. Treasury's clarification on "commence construction" rules has significantly reduced prior uncertainties, leaving residential solar safe harbor rules largely unchanged [2] - Sunrun has secured supply and safe harbor volumes through 2029, with plans to secure additional volumes for 2030 starting in 2026 [2] Group 2: Business Model and Market Position - Changes in OB3 policy are expected to drive more households towards third-party ownership (TPO) models, benefiting Sunrun as a market leader in leases and Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) [3] - With the 25D tax credit set to expire at the end of 2025, TPO adoption is anticipated to rise, allowing Sunrun to expand partnerships and grow market share [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - Sunrun's cash generation is projected to increase from $308 million in 2025 to $550 million in 2026, indicating a 15% cash generation yield relative to the $16 price target [4] - For Q3, revenue is projected at $585.3 million with an EPS of 48 cents [4] Group 4: Stock Performance - As of publication, RUN stock has increased by 10.06%, trading at $15.32 [5]