Summary of Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech (002518.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech (002518.SZ) - **Industry**: Electric power conversion technology, focusing on data centers and energy storage systems (ESS) Key Financial Highlights - **2Q25 Results**: - Revenue: Rmb1,219 million, +15% YoY - Gross Profit: Rmb350 million, +7% YoY - EBIT: Rmb141 million, +82% YoY - Net Profit: Rmb144 million, +70% YoY - Gross Margin: 29%, -2pp YoY - Operating Margin: 12%, +4pp YoY - Net Profit Margin: 12%, +4pp YoY - **Comparison to Guidance**: Results were largely in line with expectations, with slight deviations in gross profit and net profit compared to guidance estimates [1][21] Growth Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Targeting 15%-20% sales growth in the data center segment for full-year 2025, implying 21%-30% growth in 2H25 [2] - Revised 2025E-2030E net profit estimates increased by 7% on average due to solid data center demand and overseas expansion potential [19] - **Price Target**: Updated 12-month price target raised to Rmb35.3 from Rmb30.9, based on a higher target multiple reflecting improved growth and return profiles [19] Segment Performance - **Data Center Products**: - Sales in 1H25: Rmb1,329 million, +8% YoY - Significant order growth (>20% YoY) expected in 2Q25, with many orders scheduled for delivery in 2H25 [2] - **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)**: - Sales in 1H25: Rmb265 million, +80% YoY - Targeting to double ESS sales growth in full-year 2025 [17] - **Solar Inverters**: - Sales in 1H25: Rmb450 million, +5% YoY - Anticipated domestic demand headwinds in 2H25, but low profitability expected to limit impact on overall earnings [18] Market Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - **Overseas Markets**: Contributed approximately 55% of segment sales in 1H25, primarily driven by Southeast Asia and Europe [2] - **New Partnerships**: Collaborating with a UPS brand for potential ODM business targeting high-power UPS products for AI data centers in North America [2] - **Domestic Market**: Domestic sales accounted for about 45% of segment sales in 1H25, with key customers including Alibaba and Bytedance [20] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected data center revenue growth - Lower-than-expected new energy revenue outlook - Lower-than-expected new energy margins [19][23] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Maintain Buy rating based on attractive P/E valuation and long-term growth potential [19][22] - **Future Outlook**: Positive growth outlook driven by data center demand, overseas expansion, and recovery in new energy business, with a focus on improving margins and profitability [22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The China Export Tracker focuses on the dynamics of China exports to the US amid tariff escalations, analyzing data from 48 corporates representing nearly 70% of China export value to the US [2][41] - Export orders from the US to Chinese corporates have stabilized at 92% of pre-tariff levels as of April 28, 2025, showing a slight recovery from 90% in mid-April [3][12] - The report indicates that nearly 20% of corporates have seen improvements in exports to non-US regions, particularly in sectors like pet treats and construction machinery [4] - China shipments and production are in substantial decline, with 35% of US orders being filled from China and 57% from ex-China facilities [11][17] - Corporates report that 40% of their products are experiencing high impacts on shipments to the US, with a significant portion seeing declines of over 50% [12][18] Summary by Sections Export Orders and Shipments - Export orders from the US have largely remained unchanged, with a slight increase noted [3] - Shipments from China are significantly impacted, with many corporates reporting a decline in production and shipments [5][12] Supply Chain Adjustments - Corporates are adjusting supply chains, with many utilizing ex-China production facilities to fulfill US orders [11][13] - Nearly half of the corporates have reported stable or increasing inventory levels in the US, providing a buffer against supply chain disruptions [21][23] Pricing Discussions - Approximately 60% of corporates are engaged in pricing negotiations, with expectations that end users will absorb most tariff costs [25][29] - There is a consensus that tariffs above 30-40% could become unmanageable for the global supply chain [26][31] Capital Allocation and Expansion Plans - Nearly 60% of corporates have ex-China production facilities, with 63% planning to expand or establish overseas capacity despite tariff uncertainties [32] - Corporates are cautious about capital expansion plans, particularly in Mexico and the US, due to ongoing uncertainties [59][61] Container Shipping and Import Data - US container imports from China showed a year-on-year increase of 9% in Q1 2025, but projections indicate a decline of 15% in Q2 and 27% in Q3 2025 [33][35] - Container shipping data has not yet reflected the anticipated decline, with current volumes still showing positive growth [35][36]