Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Amer Sports with a target price of $46, indicating a 22% upside potential. Anta Sports is rated "Market-Perform" with a target price of HKD 89, suggesting an 8% upside. Li Ning is rated "Underperform" with a target price of HKD 17, indicating a 16% downside potential [6][7]. Core Insights - China's sportswear market is transitioning from high-growth expansion to mature growth, with total market growth moderating to approximately 6% CAGR through 2030E. The outdoor segment is expected to maintain a structural outperformance at around 12% CAGR [1][10]. - The market is shifting from "land-grab" growth to share reallocation and premiumization, with success increasingly reliant on brand differentiation, technical innovation, and channel efficiency [1][19]. - Technical specialists are gaining market share within the outdoor category, with brands like Arc'teryx projected to increase their share from approximately 7% in 2019 to around 20% by 2025E [3][23]. Market Dynamics - The outdoor segment is now the largest category, with growth moderating to +12% YoY from a previous CAGR of 29% (2021–2025E). Apparel is leading category performance at +18% YoY, while sneakers grew +14% YoY [2][13]. - The sportswear market is expected to normalize to mid-single-digit growth through 2030E, structurally outperforming broader retail by approximately 2 percentage points annually [11][21]. - The exercising population in China is projected to reach 630 million by 2035E, supporting long-term structural demand for sportswear [11][37]. Competitive Landscape - Market share is fragmenting away from generalists toward specialized brands, with Anta maintaining approximately 21% share and Li Ning around 9% by 2030E. The "Others" category is expected to decline significantly [15][51]. - Premium brands are forecasted to hold a stable share of around 54% through 2030E, while mass brands will remain at approximately 46% [12][48]. - Brand performance is highly polarized, with technical specialists like Arc'teryx and Salomon capturing significant growth, while many established brands stagnate or decline [4][16]. Brand Performance - Top performers in 2025 include Arc'teryx (+167%), Salomon (+150%), and Descente (+84%), while established brands like Li Ning and Nike are underperforming with growth rates below the market average [4][17]. - The report highlights that premium positioning alone is insufficient for success; continuous innovation and strong local relevance are critical [18][30]. Outlook and Implications - The sector is expected to shift from category expansion to share reallocation, with winners being those who can defend premium positioning and expand into adjacent categories [19][25]. - The outdoor segment is projected to continue outpacing overall sportswear growth, with a forecasted CAGR of approximately 13% from 2025 to 2030E [22][26].