Core Viewpoint - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) is positioned as a strong investment option for the upcoming rise in gold prices, despite a recent decline in its performance compared to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) [1][4]. Performance Summary - SGDM has experienced a 2% decline over the past month and a 3% drop year-to-date, while GDX has increased by 0.9% YTD [1]. - SGDM's year-to-date gain stands at 3.21%, outperforming GDX's 0.92% YTD rise, indicating its resilience in volatile market conditions [4]. Investment Strategy - SGDM employs a factor-based construction that prioritizes miners based on revenue growth, free cash flow yield, and debt-to-equity ratios, focusing on companies with strong financial fundamentals rather than just size [1][5]. - The ETF tracks the Solactive Gold Miners Custom Factors Index, which filters for miners generating returns rather than merely extracting gold [5]. Macro Factors - Real interest rates on 10-year Treasuries are identified as the primary driver for SGDM's performance over the next 12 months, with a sustained move below 4% signaling potential strength for gold miners [2][6]. - The current 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.34%, having risen by 0.26% over the past month, which has coincided with a pullback in gold and mining stocks [7]. Monitoring Indicators - Investors are advised to track the 10-year yield and the Federal Reserve's dot plot for insights into future rate movements, as a decline below 4% would be a bullish signal for SGDM [8]. - The next index rebalance will reflect changes in free cash flow yield, revenue growth, and debt reduction scores, impacting the ETF's holdings [9]. Fund Characteristics - SGDM has total net assets of $662.2 million and charges an expense ratio of 0.50%, which is competitive for a specialized mining fund [10]. - Key holdings include Agnico Eagle Mines (10.15%), Newmont (7.75%), and Wheaton Precious Metals (7.36%), all of which have performed well based on the index's quality factors [9].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The trajectory of real interest rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield adjusted for inflation, is crucial for the performance of gold miners over the next 12 months [2][5] - Gold miners have experienced significant volatility, with the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) declining by 21.16% over the past month, while year-to-date it has gained 3.21%, outperforming the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) which is up 0.92% [4][6] - A sustained move of the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% would signal renewed strength for gold and its miners, as lower yields make gold more attractive compared to bonds [5][7] Group 2: SGDM ETF Characteristics - SGDM utilizes a factor-based construction that weights companies based on revenue growth, free cash flow yield, and debt-to-equity ratios, focusing on miners with strong financial fundamentals rather than just size [3][6] - The fund currently holds $662.2 million in total net assets and charges a competitive expense ratio of 0.50% for a specialized mining fund [10] - The next index rebalance will reflect updated scores for free cash flow yield, revenue growth, and debt reduction, potentially concentrating the fund in the strongest operators if gold prices remain elevated [9][11] Group 3: Monitoring and Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's FRED database for the 10-year yield and the Fed's dot plot for insights on future rate expectations [8] - Top holdings in SGDM include Agnico Eagle Mines (10.15%), Newmont (7.75%), and Wheaton Precious Metals (7.36%), which have scored well on the index's quality factors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) and the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) provide distinct investment opportunities in precious metals mining, with SLVP focusing on global silver and metals miners, while SGDM targets U.S. and Canadian gold producers [1]. Cost & Size - SLVP has an expense ratio of 0.39%, making it more affordable compared to SGDM's 0.50% [2][3]. - As of February 16, 2026, SLVP reported a 1-year return of 204.4%, significantly higher than SGDM's 154.3% [2]. - SLVP offers a dividend yield of 1.56%, compared to SGDM's 0.95% [2][3]. - SLVP has assets under management (AUM) of $1.2 billion, while SGDM has $731 million [2]. Performance & Risk Comparison - Over a 5-year period, SLVP experienced a maximum drawdown of -56.18%, while SGDM had a lower drawdown of -49.68% [4]. - An investment of $1,000 in SLVP would have grown to $2,533 over 5 years, whereas the same investment in SGDM would have grown to $2,948 [4]. Portfolio Composition - SGDM consists of 40 companies, primarily focused on North American gold miners, with major holdings including Agnico Eagle Mines, Newmont, and Wheaton Precious Metals, which together represent over 25% of its assets [5]. - SLVP also focuses on basic materials but emphasizes global silver and metals miners, with top holdings including Hecla Mining, Industrias Peñoles, and Fresnillo [6]. Market Context - Precious metals are viewed as "safe haven" investments, attracting investors amid stock market volatility [7]. - Silver has shown more volatility recently, as indicated by SLVP's higher beta and greater maximum drawdown, but it has also delivered higher 12-month total returns compared to SGDM [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - Sprott is evaluating structural changes in the commodities market following a strong year for gold and silver, indicating that commodities are becoming a core allocation influenced by politics and policy [1] - The report outlines three dominant themes: accelerating deglobalization, the rise of the debasement trade, and the continuation of a gold and silver bull market [2] Group 2: Deglobalization and Strategic Assets - Deglobalization is now a reality, with governments prioritizing sovereignty and supply security over cost minimization, placing commodities at the center of this trend [3] - Critical minerals and precious metals are being reclassified as strategic assets, leading to fragmented markets and regional shortages [4] Group 3: Inflationary Trends - The trend towards nearshoring and domestic production is inflationary, causing gold to regain its relevance as a reserve asset in a multipolar world, while silver benefits as both a store of value and an industrial input [5] Group 4: The Debt Conundrum - The debasement trade reflects a long-term shift from fiat currencies to tangible assets due to chronic government deficits that central banks must accommodate [6][7] - By 2025, U.S. public debt is projected to exceed $38 trillion, with little political appetite for austerity, complicating monetary policy independence [8] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Gold is viewed as underowned despite its recent rally, with significant buying from central banks, particularly China, suggesting continued upside potential into 2026 [11] - Silver's role has evolved from a monetary asset to a critical industrial commodity, facing persistent supply deficits due to its production dynamics [12] Group 6: Emerging Opportunities - Uranium is identified as a cornerstone of energy security, supported by government funding for nuclear power and increasing demand driven by AI [14] - Copper is facing supply shortages due to electrification and grid expansions, while rare earths are seen as strategic bottlenecks influenced by geopolitics [15]

Core Insights - Gold has experienced significant price increases, climbing 26.62% over the past six months and 61.51% year to date, with a notable 15.14% gain in the last month alone [1][2] - Market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and increasing demand for safe-haven assets are likely to support gold's price growth into 2026, with projections suggesting it could reach $5,000 [2][4] Market Dynamics - The weakening U.S. dollar, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts, has made gold more affordable for international buyers, contributing to its price rise [6] - Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are prompting investors to seek refuge in gold, further enhancing its appeal [5] Investment Strategies - A long-term passive investment strategy is recommended for gold ETF investing, allowing investors to capitalize on potential short-term price corrections as buying opportunities [8] - Investors are advised to consider allocating up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, as suggested by notable investors like Ray Dalio, which contrasts with traditional advice of limiting such allocations [10] ETF Options - For physical gold exposure, investors can consider ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), with GLD being the most liquid option [13] - Gold miners ETFs, like VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), provide access to the gold mining sector, which can amplify gains and losses compared to direct gold investments [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) has seen a significant increase of 115% in 2025, driven by rising gold prices and increased capital inflow into gold-focused ETFs [2][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The spot gold price has risen by 50% year-to-date, approaching $4,000, with predictions that it could reach $5,000 by the end of the year [5][14]. - Factors contributing to the rising gold price include the decline in the value of the U.S. dollar and economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the American economy and international conflicts [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Advantages of SGDM - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF provides an easy way for investors to gain exposure to gold without the need for physical storage or insurance [4][6]. - The ETF has outperformed the gold price itself, more than doubling in value as compared to the 50% increase in gold prices [6][7]. - SGDM includes holdings from 37 major gold mining companies, allowing investors to benefit from the performance of established firms without needing to conduct individual stock research [8][9]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Dividends - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF charges an annual operating expense of 0.5%, which is relatively moderate in the ETF market [11]. - Historically, SGDM has paid cash distributions, with a $0.29-per-share distribution recorded in December 2024, indicating potential for future distributions to exceed operating expenses [12][13]. Group 4: Volatility and Risk Management - The ETF is subject to volatility risk, particularly if the U.S. dollar continues to decline or if market uncertainty persists [14][15]. - Investors are advised to maintain small share positions and have exit strategies, such as stop-loss orders, to manage potential declines in SGDM's share price [15][16].

Group 1 - Gold has increased by 46% year-to-date, marking the best performance since 1979 [1] - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: SGDM) has risen by 453%, including dividends, over the past year [1]

Group 1 - Gold has increased by 46% year-to-date, marking the best performance since 1979 [1] - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: SGDM) has risen by 453%, including dividends, over the past year [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold has reached a new record above $3,800 an ounce, marking a 47% increase so far this year, driven by fears of a US government shutdown and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - Gold-linked ETFs, such as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF and Sprott Gold Miners ETF, have more than doubled in size this year [3] Group 2: Zijin Gold International - Zijin Gold International, the overseas arm of Zijin Mining, debuted in Hong Kong with shares jumping as much as 66% on the first day of trading, reflecting strong investor demand for equity exposure to the gold market [2] - The retail portion of Zijin Gold's $3.2 billion IPO was oversubscribed 241 times, indicating high investor interest [2] Group 3: Mining Companies Performance - Major mining companies have seen significant stock price increases, with Newmont up 127% and Barrick Mining climbing 114% this year [4] Group 4: Macro Drivers of Gold Prices - Falling bond yields and sticky inflation are making gold more attractive as an investment, while geopolitical uncertainties, including the potential for Donald Trump's second term, enhance its safe-haven appeal [5] - Sustained central bank buying has contributed to the upward trend in gold prices, with ETF investors also showing strong demand [6]