Core Insights - The article discusses how multipolarity, deglobalization, and nearshoring are expected to lead to a structural increase in inflation, as predicted by economists [1] Group 1: Economic Trends - Multipolarity is emerging as a significant trend, indicating a shift in global power dynamics that may affect economic stability and inflation rates [1] - Deglobalization is highlighted as a factor that could disrupt traditional supply chains, potentially leading to increased costs and inflationary pressures [1] - Nearshoring is becoming more prevalent as companies seek to relocate production closer to their consumer markets, which may also contribute to rising inflation due to higher operational costs [1] Group 2: Inflation Predictions - Economists predict that these trends will not only affect current inflation rates but may also lead to a long-term structural shift in how inflation behaves in the global economy [1] - The anticipated increase in inflation is expected to be driven by changes in trade patterns and production locations, which could alter pricing dynamics across various industries [1]

We are in the process of accelerating deglobalization. The process of de-globalization involves decoupling into two blocks: 1) the US-led block with the EU allies and other NATO members, and 2) the China-led block, together with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am n ...

Core Insights - Brookfield's 2026 Investment Outlook emphasizes a significant investment period driven by structural, multi-decade cycles, including rising electricity demand, rapid AI adoption, and the reorientation of global supply chains [1][2] Infrastructure - A once-in-a-generation investment supercycle is underway, with infrastructure at its center, driven by AI, electrification, and reindustrialization [4] - Brookfield is collaborating with corporates and sovereigns to develop essential power, data, and logistics networks to support global growth [4] Renewable Power & Transition - Access to power is identified as a strategic priority for economic growth, with a focus on scalable, reliable, and clean energy solutions [5][6] - The approach includes a mix of renewables, storage, nuclear, and natural gas to meet soaring demand [8] Private Equity - The private equity sector is shifting towards operational excellence for value creation, moving away from financial engineering [7] - Opportunities are seen in industrial companies needing operational transformation due to deglobalization and digitalization [9] Real Estate - 2026 is expected to be a year of tactical investment in real estate, with a focus on selectivity and operational value creation [10] - Key areas of opportunity include diversified housing, logistics, and hospitality, driven by long-term structural demand [10] Credit - The credit market fundamentals are robust, with increasing demand for financing and a focus on disciplined underwriting [11] - High-quality borrowers and resilient income structures are prioritized to capitalize on attractive investment opportunities [11]

watch nowWhile markets expect Kevin Hassett to be named the next Federal Reserve chair, he is pointedly not the choice of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey.The December survey shows 84% believe President Donald Trump will tap Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, to head the central bank. But only 11% think that's what the president should do. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is the favored pick of 47% of respondents, followed by Kevin Warsh at 23%. But only 5% of respondents think Trump will ...

Core Insights - Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) has increased its dividend by 15% in 2025 and anticipates robust dividend growth to continue until at least 2030 [1][8] - The company is one of the largest asset managers in Canada, with a significant global presence in infrastructure investments [2][5] - BAM's current dividend yield stands at 3.4%, with plans for double-digit annual dividend growth [2][10] Company Overview - Brookfield Asset Management primarily invests on behalf of others and charges fees based on the value of assets managed, focusing on fee-bearing capital rather than just assets under management (AUM) [3] - As of 2020, BAM had approximately $277 billion in fee-bearing capital, which grew to $563 billion by 2025, reflecting a 15% annualized growth rate [4][7] - The company operates across five major platforms: infrastructure, renewable power, private equity, real estate, and credit [5] Growth Strategy - BAM aims to double its fee-bearing capital again by 2030, targeting approximately $1.2 trillion [7] - The company is focused on three main themes: digitization, deglobalization, and decarbonization, which are seen as a $100 trillion opportunity [6] Dividend Growth Potential - The 2025 dividend increase of 15% is expected to support a similar growth rate in fee-related earnings, projected at around 17% annually [8] - If dividends continue to grow at 15%, they could roughly double within five years [9] Market Position - BAM's current market capitalization is $85 billion, with a gross margin of 94.86% [9] - The company's dividend yield of 3.4% is notably higher than the S&P 500's yield of 1.2%, making it an attractive option for dividend investors [10]

RT Bloomberg New Economy (@BBGNewEconomy)POLL: Is the world economy truly deglobalizing — or just adapting? #BloombergNewEconomy📊 https://t.co/Ed2uAXAtOf ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Quarterly fee-related earnings grew 17% year-over-year to $754 million, while distributable earnings increased 7% to $661 million [5][25] - Fee-bearing capital reached $581 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, driven by record fundraising [5][24] - The margin for the quarter was 58%, consistent with the prior year, and up 1% over the last 12 months [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure and renewable power raised $30 billion, deployed $30 billion, and monetized over $10 billion at approximately 20% returns over the past 12 months [11] - The private equity business launched its seventh vintage, focusing on essential service businesses, with expectations for it to be the largest fund ever [18][20] - Real estate business saw approximately $23 billion in property sales, representing $10 billion of equity value over the past 12 months [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global M&A volumes increased nearly 25% year-over-year, with $1 trillion in announced deals in the third quarter, the highest since 2021 [7][8] - The demand for electricity is increasing at an unprecedented rate, driven by electrification trends and the surge in electricity demand from data centers [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is launching an AI Infrastructure Fund to capture opportunities in AI-related infrastructure investments, estimated to exceed $7 trillion over the next decade [14] - A landmark partnership with the U.S. government to construct $80 billion in new nuclear power reactors positions the company at the forefront of clean energy initiatives [18] - The company aims to double its business by 2030, with plans to expand product offerings and diversify its investor base [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong fundraising momentum and expects 2026 to exceed 2025 levels [37][38] - The company is well-positioned to meet the increasing demand for power solutions, leveraging its renewable power business [17][23] - Management highlighted the importance of operational improvement as a key driver of value creation in the current economic environment [73] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $43.75 per share, payable on December 31 [32] - The acquisition of the remaining 26% in Oaktree Capital Management is expected to close in the first half of 2026, enhancing the company's credit capabilities [9][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Fundraising momentum and management fee growth outlook for 2026 - Management expects fundraising to exceed 2024 levels and anticipates strong growth in management fees driven by new acquisitions and fundraising [37][38] Question: Credit business fee rate and growth aspirations - The elevated fee rate was driven by a mix shift and one-off transaction fees, with a positive trend expected in the credit business [42][43] Question: Integration benefits from acquiring Oaktree - The acquisition will allow for operational synergies, improved marketing, and client service capabilities, enhancing overall value [49][52] Question: Retail market momentum and distribution strategy - The company is seeing robust momentum in the retail market and is focused on building relationships with key stakeholders to capture growth opportunities [55][56] Question: Corporate direct lending outlook - Management remains cautious about direct lending due to competition but sees strong opportunities in credit related to real assets and infrastructure [60][61] Question: Private equity fund outlook amidst market backdrop - The company is optimistic about its private equity fund due to its focus on essential assets and consistent performance across market cycles [72][75] Question: Broadening the client base for fundraising - The company has dedicated teams targeting small and medium-sized institutions, family offices, and insurance institutions, leading to significant growth [79][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Quarterly fee-related earnings grew 17% year-over-year to $754 million, while distributable earnings increased 7% to $661 million [5][25] - Fee-bearing capital reached $581 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, driven by record fundraising [5][24] - The company raised $30 billion in the third quarter, bringing total inflows over the past 12 months to more than $100 billion [7][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The infrastructure and renewable power franchise raised $30 billion, deployed $30 billion, and monetized over $10 billion at approximately 20% returns over the past 12 months [11] - The private equity business launched its seventh vintage, focusing on essential service businesses, with expectations for it to be the largest fund ever [18][75] - The real estate business sold approximately $23 billion of properties, representing $10 billion of equity value over the past 12 months [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global M&A volumes increased nearly 25% year-over-year, with $1 trillion in announced deals in the third quarter, the highest since 2021 [8] - The demand for electricity is increasing at an unprecedented rate, driven by electrification trends and the surge in electricity demand from data centers [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is launching an AI Infrastructure Fund to capture opportunities in AI-related infrastructure investments, estimated to exceed $7 trillion over the next decade [14] - A landmark partnership with the U.S. government to construct $80 billion of new nuclear power reactors was announced, positioning the company at the center of clean baseload power development [18] - The company plans to double its business by 2030, with fee-related earnings reaching $5.8 billion and fee-bearing capital reaching $1.2 trillion [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong fundraising momentum and expects 2026 to exceed 2025 levels [37][38] - The company is well-positioned to meet the increasing demand for power solutions, leveraging its renewable power business [17][23] - Management highlighted the importance of operational improvement as a key driver of value creation in the current economic environment [73] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $43.75 per share, payable on December 31 to shareholders of record as of November 28 [32] - The acquisition of the remaining 26% in Oaktree Capital Management is expected to close in the first half of 2026, enhancing the company's credit capabilities [9][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Fundraising momentum and management fee growth outlook for 2026 - Management expects fundraising to exceed 2024 levels and anticipates strong growth in management fees driven by new acquisitions and fundraising [37][38] Question: Credit business fee rate and growth aspirations - The elevated fee rate was driven by a mix shift and one-off transaction fees, with a positive trend expected in the credit business [42][43] Question: Integration benefits from acquiring Oaktree - The acquisition will allow for operational synergies, improved marketing capabilities, and enhanced client service [49][52] Question: Retail market momentum and distribution strategy - The company is seeing robust momentum in the retail market and is focused on building relationships with key stakeholders to capture growth opportunities [55][56] Question: Private equity outlook amidst market backdrop - The private equity business is expected to perform well due to its focus on essential assets and operational improvement, differentiating it from peers [73][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brookfield Infrastructure Partners reported third quarter Funds from Operations (FFO) of $654 million, or $0.83 per unit, representing a 9% increase compared to the previous year, driven by strong organic growth [3][4] - The company maintained a well-capitalized balance sheet with liquidity totaling $5.5 billion at the end of the third quarter [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Utilities segment generated FFO of $190 million, slightly ahead of the prior year, benefiting from inflation indexation and over $450 million of capital added to the rate base [3][4] - Transport segment's FFO was $286 million, lower than last year due to asset sales, but slightly ahead when adjusted for capital recycling initiatives [4] - Midstream segment generated FFO of $156 million, a 6% increase year-over-year, driven by strong customer activity levels [5] - Data segment's FFO was $138 million, a significant increase of over 60% compared to the prior year, attributed to a full quarter contribution from a tower portfolio acquisition in India and strong organic growth [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong volumes across its networks and rate increases on rail networks and toll roads, contributing to solid underlying performance in the transport segment [4] - The data segment's growth was supported by the commissioning of new capacity at hyperscale data centers and increased billings at U.S. retail colocation data centers [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Brookfield Infrastructure has secured six new investments totaling over $1.5 billion, including a $1.3 billion New Zealand natural gas infrastructure operation and a $1 billion South Korean industrial gas business [9][10] - The company is focusing on AI-related infrastructure, expecting to deploy up to $500 million annually into this sector, which represents a significant growth opportunity [13] - The outlook for the company remains favorable, with expectations for new investments to deliver returns above the 12%-15% target range [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to source the best opportunities despite increased competition in the data sector, emphasizing their global franchise and access to significant capital [17][19] - The company is optimistic about the macroeconomic backdrop and long-term mega trends such as digitalization, deglobalization, and decarbonization driving future growth [13] Other Important Information - The company completed a $700 million corporate issuance of medium-term notes at a historically tight credit spread, enhancing liquidity and supporting growth initiatives [6][8] - Brookfield Infrastructure has generated over $3 billion in proceeds from asset sales this year and aims to achieve a further $3 billion over the next 12-18 months [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on rising competition for capital deployment opportunities - Management acknowledged increased competition in the data sector but remains confident in their ability to source opportunities due to their global presence and capital access [17][19] Question: Timing and success metrics for LP unit repurchases and ATM program - Management indicated that they are contemplating the program to increase liquidity and avoid dilution for existing shareholders, but specifics on measuring success were not provided [20][22] Question: Future IPOs for midstream assets following RockPoint's success - Management stated that public markets remain a potential exit strategy for monetizing assets, depending on market conditions [26] Question: Investment thesis for CenterSquare and future growth opportunities - Management expressed optimism about the growth potential of CenterSquare, highlighting significant expansion opportunities and a robust capital deployment plan [28][29] Question: Market interest in stabilized data center portfolios - Management noted strong demand for the data center portfolio and plans to continue executing capital recycling initiatives in Europe and other markets [33][35] Question: Differences between sovereign compute opportunities and hyperscale AI labs - Management highlighted the distinct nature of sovereign compute opportunities, focusing on creating tailored solutions for governments while also servicing hyperscale customers [37][38] Question: Organic growth rates in data businesses - Management indicated that organic growth rates in data businesses are tracking slightly ahead of underwriting assumptions, with significant new projects expected in the coming years [45]

Core Insights - The company has raised its guidance due to resilient demand across all geographies, including a recovery in the US towards the end of the quarter, alongside effective cost management that has improved margins across all businesses [1] Global Trade Perspective - The current global trade picture remains strong, countering narratives of deglobalization, with growth observed across many regions, primarily driven by China's manufacturing strength [2][3] Freight Rates and Market Dynamics - Freight rates have shown significant volatility, particularly in Q3, primarily due to supply-driven factors rather than demand, with an influx of tonnage expected to impact future rates [4][5] - The company anticipates continued volatility in the market, influenced by ongoing tariff negotiations and the need for clarity in investment conditions [7][9] China's Role in Global Trade - China's share in global trade has been increasing steadily, a trend that predates recent tariff discussions, with strong export growth observed across various regions including Asia, Europe, and Latin America [6][12][13] Regional Developments - The situation in the Red Sea has improved, with a ceasefire in Gaza being a positive development for shipping routes, although the timeline for reopening normal traffic remains uncertain [15][16] Environmental Commitments - The shipping industry is facing challenges in meeting decarbonization targets due to delays in regulatory measures, emphasizing the need for stakeholders to address these issues at COP 30 [17][18]