Core Insights - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of the Commerce Department's initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, although other data sources indicate solid economic growth during the quarter [1][3] - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model estimates third-quarter GDP growth at 3.9%, while the New York Fed's nowcast estimates it at 2.35% [6][9] - The lack of official GDP data due to the shutdown is creating uncertainty in economic assessments, with Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about the impact on their economic outlook [10] Economic Growth Estimates - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model provides a "nowcast" of real GDP growth, estimating a 3.9% growth rate for the third quarter [6] - The New York Fed's staff nowcast estimates third-quarter GDP growth at 2.35%, with a 50% probability range between 1.32% and 3.41% [9] - Incorporating these estimates, the overall GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year could be around 2.4% based on the Atlanta Fed's estimate, or 1.88% based on the New York Fed's estimate [12][13] Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has led to the Bureau of Labor Statistics missing the September jobs report, although it temporarily returned workers to publish the consumer price index due to its importance for Social Security adjustments [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the government shutdown is affecting the Federal Reserve's ability to assess the economy accurately, as noted by Fed Chair Powell [10]