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RBI's share in outstanding govt securities rises, bond yields likely to stay rangebound: SBI Report
BusinessLine· 2025-11-17 03:41
Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) share in outstanding government securities has increased to 14.2% in June 2025 from 11.9% in June 2024 and 10.6% in December 2025 [2] - The share held by banks has declined, while the share of insurance companies has remained broadly unchanged during the same period [2] - The Central government is expected to borrow around ₹1.00 lakh crore every month until February 2026, with significant State Development Loan (SDL) issuances likely to compete with short-term government borrowings [2] Group 2 - Bond yields are expected to remain rangebound and move sideways in the coming days, as banks and mutual funds have been net sellers of government securities, while the "Others" category has emerged as a major buyer [3] - The RBI has intervened in the foreign exchange market to curb excessive speculation and defend the rupee, resulting in a net sale of foreign currency amounting to around $14 billion between June and August 2025 [4][5] - India's foreign exchange reserves declined from $703 billion in June 2025 to $690 billion by the end of October 2025, with reserves excluding gold and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) falling by $30 billion during the same period [4][5] Group 3 - The RBI's recent Open Market Operations (OMOs) in the secondary market may be a tactical move to inject permanent liquidity to offset the liquidity drained due to forex interventions [6] - The RBI has shifted part of its intervention strategy towards the Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) markets instead of spot market operations to manage currency volatility without impacting banking system liquidity [6]