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ASMPT_存储业务依托 CoWoS 技术;看好 SMT 战略选项评估;中性评级
2026-02-03 02:06
ASMPT (0522.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: ASMPT (0522.HK) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Key Points Industry and Market Trends - The semiconductor segment is expected to experience an uptrend driven by increasing demand for AI, which will enhance both advanced packaging and mainstream back-end tools [1][2] - The company's SMT segment is projected to account for 44% of revenues by 2025, but growth is slower compared to the semiconductor segment due to technological advancements [2] Strategic Focus - ASMPT is exploring strategic options for its SMT segment, including divestitures, joint ventures, spin-offs, and potential listings, to reallocate resources towards the semiconductor segment, which has a more favorable growth outlook [1][2] - The share price increased by 6.5% following the announcement of these strategic options, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index [1] Financial Projections - ASMPT's price target has been raised by 14.8% to HK$90.7, based on a higher 2027E P/E of 20.1x, aligning with the company's average trading P/E since 2019 [1][16] - Revenue estimates for 2025E remain unchanged at HK$14.21 billion, with projected revenues of HK$17.30 billion in 2026E and HK$19.58 billion in 2027E [12][20] Advanced Packaging and Technology - ASMPT is a leading supplier of high-end thermal compression bonding tools, with over 500 units installed by 2Q25 [3] - The company is making significant progress in TCB for HBM, having secured orders from major HBM players for HBM4 TCB tools, positioning itself as a first mover in the transition from HBM3E to HBM4 [3] Operational and Financial Adjustments - Operating expenses are expected to remain high, with an opex ratio projected to sustain at over 30% in 2025-26E due to increased R&D investments [11] - Net income estimates for 2025-27E have been revised down by -35% for 2025E, -7% for 2026E, and increased by +1% for 2027E [11] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include the pace of customer adoption of advanced packaging tools, demand fluctuations from automotive customers, and overall demand for traditional IC packaging and SMT equipment [17] Valuation and Rating - The current rating for ASMPT is Neutral, reflecting a fair valuation despite the positive outlook for the semiconductor segment [1][16] - The target price implies a downside of 13.0% from the current price of HK$104.20 [20] Additional Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing its semiconductor solutions business, which is expected to benefit from technological advancements and increased demand driven by AI trends [2][11] - The financial outlook indicates a recovery trajectory for ASMPT's fundamentals, supported by the demand recovery in SMT and semiconductor tools [16]