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Will ALD and Etch Deal Wins Anchor LRCX's Systems Revenue Growth?
ZACKS· 2025-07-14 14:25
Core Insights - Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is experiencing strong momentum in its systems business, with third-quarter fiscal 2025 systems revenues reaching $3.04 billion, a 15.6% sequential increase and a 27% year-over-year growth, contributing approximately 64% of total revenues [2][11] Group 1: Business Performance - The growth in systems revenue is driven by advanced products that cater to next-generation memory and logic technologies, particularly the Striker SPARC atomic layer deposition (ALD) tool, which has secured multiple wins in spacer applications [3] - The ALTUS Halo system is gaining traction, supporting barrierless atomic layer deposition of molybdenum, which reduces resistance in interconnect layers by 50% compared to legacy technologies, crucial for high I/O performance in 3D NAND for AI workloads [4] - The Akara system is also gaining traction with major DRAM customers, enhancing etch selectivity and precision, which aligns with Lam Research's long-term DRAM roadmaps [5] Group 2: Future Outlook - Lam Research projects fourth-quarter revenues to be approximately $5.0 billion (±$300 million), while management remains cautious about macroeconomic factors that could affect customer spending trends [6] - The strong adoption of Striker, Halo, and Akara, along with rising demand for advanced NAND and DRAM nodes, positions Lam Research's systems business for long-term growth [6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Applied Materials and ASML Holding are also witnessing strong momentum, with Applied Materials projecting over 40% revenue growth from advanced DRAM customers in fiscal 2025, driven by investments in DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory [7] - ASML Holding reported that 42% of its net system sales came from memory, highlighting strong customer demand for its products [8] Group 4: Valuation and Estimates - Lam Research's shares have gained 40.8% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Electronics – Semiconductors industry's growth of 14.1% [9] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Lam Research is 25.34, significantly below the industry's average of 33.24 [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lam Research's fiscal 2026 earnings has been revised upward to $4 per share, indicating flat growth compared to fiscal 2025 [16]