Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in cobalt prices, noting a current price of 406,800 CNY per ton, which has decreased by 3,600 CNY from the previous day and by 9,000 CNY over the past week, but has increased by 13,300 CNY over the past month, reflecting a rise of over 150% since the cobalt export ban in February this year [5][6] - The pricing power in the cobalt market is primarily held by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which has implemented new export regulations requiring exporters to prepay a 10% mining license fee and has introduced stricter export supervision measures [5][6] - The DRC's export quota system, which began on October 15, 2023, allows for the export of 18,100 tons of cobalt for the remainder of the year and 96,600 tons for each of the following two years, impacting the global cobalt supply chain [6][9] Group 2 - The cobalt market is transitioning from a free export system to a quota-based export system, which may disrupt the battery cathode materials market, particularly affecting the demand for cobalt in ternary batteries while potentially boosting the lithium iron phosphate battery market [12][13] - The article highlights that while cobalt is essential for high-end electric vehicles and aerospace applications, the ongoing price increases may lead to a shift towards lithium iron phosphate batteries, especially among international brands [12][13] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt are expected to benefit from the rising cobalt prices, with Luoyang Molybdenum reporting a production of 88,000 tons of cobalt in the first three quarters of the year [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in cobalt prices are closely linked to policy adjustments in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which significantly impact domestic cobalt-related industries and listed companies [3][12]. Group 1: Cobalt Price Trends - As of March 10, the average price of domestic cobalt reached 223,000 yuan per ton, marking a cumulative increase of 40.25% since the low point on February 24 [2]. - The cobalt industry has experienced a continuous decline over the past three years, with prices dropping approximately 80% [9]. - The DRC announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports on February 24, 2025, to address the oversupply in the global cobalt market, which could lead to a 25% reduction in global cobalt supply [8][13]. Group 2: Impact on Industries - The increase in cobalt prices is expected to raise the cost of ternary power batteries for electric vehicles by approximately 1,000 yuan for every 60% rise in cobalt prices [4]. - The supply-demand gap in the cobalt industry could reach 25%, which is significant enough to drive up commodity prices [7]. - The price of cobalt sulfate, used in ternary materials, surged from 26.55 yuan per kilogram to 42.05 yuan in just ten days, reflecting a 58.4% increase [15]. Group 3: Market Reactions - From February 25 to March 10, the average stock price increase for four listed companies in the cobalt sector reached 21.41%, leading all sub-sectors [21]. - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co., which is the largest cobalt producer globally, reported an 8.6% increase in stock price and are actively communicating with the DRC government regarding policy changes [22]. - The rising cobalt prices have also affected the recycling market for used batteries, with significant price increases reported for scrap batteries [18]. Group 4: Company Performance and Profitability - Companies such as Hanrui Cobalt and Tengyuan Cobalt are expected to benefit from the rising prices, as their profitability is closely tied to the prices of cobalt products [24]. - However, the revenue contribution from cobalt-related businesses is relatively low for many A-share companies, with cobalt products accounting for only 36.08% of Tengyuan Cobalt's revenue [25]. - The varying levels of benefit from the price increases will depend on each company's position in the supply chain and revenue structure [26].