Core Viewpoint - The supply and price fluctuations of battery metals such as cobalt, nickel, and copper are raising new market concerns, driven by various regulatory changes and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains and production costs [1][3]. Group 1: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) dominates global cobalt supply, accounting for over 78%, and its upcoming export ban in February 2025 has led to a dramatic price surge from 162,000 CNY/ton to 260,000 CNY/ton, a rise of over 60% [3]. - The DRC government may extend the export ban to maintain high prices, which, along with cooperation with Indonesia, signals long-term supply concerns [3]. - The price increase in cobalt directly impacts battery cathode material costs, with prices for ternary precursors (523 and 622 types) rising by 30% and 28%, respectively, and lithium cobalt oxide increasing by 20% [3][4]. Group 2: Nickel Supply Constraints - Indonesia and the Philippines, which together account for over 70% of global nickel supply, are tightening policies, with Indonesia raising nickel ore tax rates and the Philippines planning to ban raw ore exports [6]. - These policy changes have led to increased mining costs and a supply gap of 5,000 tons for nickel sulfate in Q1, pushing nickel prices upward [6]. - The rising nickel prices are affecting the cost of nickel sulfate and may force automotive companies to reassess their technology routes due to increased procurement costs of 15%-20% for smelters [7]. Group 3: Copper Market Fluctuations - The global copper market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices reaching historical highs, driven by expectations of potential high tariffs on imported copper in the U.S. [8]. - Approximately 500,000 tons of copper are currently being redirected to the U.S. market, exacerbating supply tightness in non-U.S. regions, particularly Asia [8]. - The continuous rise in copper prices translates to cost pressures for battery manufacturers, as copper foil constitutes 10%-15% of total battery costs, thereby squeezing profit margins [8][2].

作 者丨 董鹏 编 辑丨巫燕玲 相对集中的供给结构、连续三年的单边下跌，赋予了钴价巨大的价格弹性。 截至3月1 0日，国内钴（1 #）平均价达到2 2 . 3万元/吨，较2月2 4日（不包含周末）的低点累计 上涨4 0 . 2 5%。 此次钴价异动与刚果（金）近期调整出口政策密切相关，并对国内钴酸锂、硫酸钴与电池回 收等细分行业，以及相关上市公司的经营层面构成显著影响。 以三元动力电池为例，根据兴业证券测算， 钴价每上涨6 0%，理论上单台新能源汽车三元动 力电池成本将提高约1 0 0 0元左右。 此外，考虑到上述主产国计划暂停钴原料出口时间较长，直接导致该行业供需过剩变成供需 紧张，包括券商、咨询公司等机构也普遍预计钴价的上涨仍将延续。 限供挺价 一般来说，当供需关系出现1 0%缺口便足以拉动大宗商品价格上涨，而近期钴行业的潜在供 需缺口则可能达到2 5%。 上周以来，也有广东等地企业宣布上调其钴酸锂、三元产品价格，涨价幅度在7%至2 2%之间 不等，同时一份新余赣锋电子有限公司的客户告知函近期也在广泛流传。 这类下游企业普遍反馈，因为上游原材料价格上涨导致其成本抬升明显，正计划对现有订单 重新定价或者上调 ...