Key Takeaways Toast reports Q4 earnings Feb. 12, with results shaped by ARR highs, revenue momentum and AI adoption.TOST partnered with Uber to deepen POS-delivery integration, with promotions tools set for 2026.Toast added about 7,500 net locations in Q3, while higher tariffs might weigh on it.Toast Inc. (TOST) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 12, after the closing bell.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $1.62 billion, up 21% from a year ago.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ...

Company Overview - Toast, Inc. is a Boston-based cloud software provider focused on the restaurant industry, offering an integrated point-of-sale and management platform built on Android. The company has positioned itself as a technology partner rather than just a payments provider, with an expanding suite of software, payments, and AI tools supporting long-term growth narratives [4]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, Toast surpassed $2 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) for the first time, effectively doubling ARR in just two years, highlighting the scalability and resilience of its platform [3]. - DA Davidson analyst Peter Heckmann lowered the price target on Toast to $36 from $42 while maintaining a Neutral rating, expecting the company to modestly exceed its own forecasts and broader consensus, although growth and margin expansion are anticipated to be more measured than in the past four to six quarters [1]. Product Development - The rollout of AI-driven products such as Toast IQ and Toast Advertising has seen strong early adoption, with over 25,000 restaurants using Toast IQ more than 235,000 times since early October, reinforcing engagement across its customer base [3]. Market Position - Despite the normalization of near-term expectations, Toast's recurring Gross Payment Volume remains a key area of strength that could provide incremental upside [1].

Core Insights - Toast is a fintech company that has established a strong recurring revenue model, particularly in the restaurant sector, which is often overlooked by long-term investors [1][2] - The company’s Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) has grown approximately 30% year-over-year, surpassing $1.9 billion in mid-2025 and expected to exceed $2 billion by Q3 2025 [3] - Toast has achieved GAAP profitability for the first time in full-year 2024, reporting a net income of $19 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $373 million [5][6] Revenue Model - Toast's platform includes essential services for small business owners, such as point-of-sale software, payment processing, payroll, and analytics, which contribute to its recurring revenue [3][4] - The company has a significant market opportunity, with a total addressable market of approximately 1.4 million potential locations, while currently servicing around 156,000 restaurant locations [8] Growth and Expansion - Toast's new offerings, such as Toast IQ and Toast Advertising, are designed to enhance customer engagement and increase revenue per customer over time, indicating a strategy of expansion revenue [9] - The company is positioned as a subscription-first fintech with real earnings and improving margins, suggesting a long runway for growth and market share acquisition [10] Market Position and Strategy - Toast's business model is less dependent on restaurant sales volume, as its revenue is derived from software and payment fees, providing a more stable cash flow even during economic downturns [11] - The company is viewed as a long-term compounder, with a focus on deepening monetization rather than merely increasing the number of locations [12] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider average entry points during market volatility, as restaurant spending is cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic conditions [12] - Monitoring Toast's progress in enterprise and international expansion could be crucial for long-term valuation growth [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved 34% top-line growth and 35% margins in Q3 2025, surpassing $2 billion in ARR for the first time, doubling from $1 billion in just two years [6][21] - Total fintech and subscription gross profit increased by 34% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $176 million and margins expanding by 5 percentage points to 35% [23][27] - GAAP operating income was $84 million, up from $34 million a year ago, with free cash flow growing to $153 million in Q3 [27][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - SaaS ARR grew 28% year-over-year, driven by location growth and a mid-single-digit increase in SaaS ARPU [24] - Payments ARR increased by 31%, with GPV reaching $52 billion, growing 24% year-over-year [24][25] - Non-payments fintech solutions contributed $58 million in gross profit, with a net take rate of 61 basis points [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added approximately 7,500 net locations in Q3, ending the quarter with 156,000 total locations, a 23% increase from the previous year [24] - International SaaS ARPU increased by 20% year-over-year, indicating strong traction in international markets [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to double its market share in the U.S. SMB business and expand into new verticals and geographies [7][9] - Key priorities include scaling locations, demonstrating new market growth, increasing platform adoption, and investing with discipline while expanding margins [9][18] - The company is focused on building a durable growth business with a long-term goal of reaching $10 billion in ARR [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth and expand margins, with expectations for continued net adds in 2025 and 2026 [18][30] - The company noted resilience in the restaurant sector despite macroeconomic concerns, with customers performing well [56] Other Important Information - The company has expanded its partnership with Uber to enhance restaurant demand and off-premise sales management [8] - Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to remain flat to slightly up year-over-year, supported by a strong core margin of 40% [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: About GPV per location and its drivers - Management indicated that GPV per location exceeded expectations in Q3, attributing part of the performance to the company's platform helping restaurants run more profitable businesses [34][35] Question: Concerns about competition and market share sustainability - Management highlighted improved win rates against competitors and emphasized the strength of their core platform as a differentiator [38][39] Question: Opportunities with consumer engagement and network density - Management discussed the potential of their growing restaurant network to enhance consumer experiences and drive new product opportunities [47][49] Question: Performance during AWS outage - Management confirmed that the business held up well during the AWS outage, allowing customers to operate offline without significant impact [67][68] Question: Sustainability of the improved take rate - Management expressed confidence in the ability to drive take rate up over time through targeted pricing moves and cost optimization [74][76] Question: Financial impact of Toast IQ and its adoption - Management noted strong early adoption of Toast IQ and its potential to drive product-led growth, with monetization strategies still being explored [83][84] Question: Pricing strategy and adjustments - Management clarified that recent pricing adjustments were intentional and targeted, with a focus on balancing market share and pricing optimization [90][91] Question: Confidence in increased net adds in 2026 - Management indicated that new TAMs are expected to contribute significantly to net adds, alongside continued performance in the core business [96][98]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved 34% top-line growth and 35% margins in Q3 2025, surpassing $2 billion in ARR for the first time, doubling from $1 billion in just two years [6][21] - Total fintech and subscription gross profit increased by 34% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $176 million and margins expanding by 5 percentage points to 35% [23][27] - GAAP operating income was $84 million, up from $34 million a year ago, with free cash flow growing to $153 million in Q3 [27][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - SaaS ARR grew 28% year-over-year, driven by location growth and a mid-single-digit increase in SaaS ARPU [24] - Payments ARR increased by 31%, with fintech gross profit growing by 35% in Q3 compared to the previous year [24][25] - The company added approximately 7,500 net locations in Q3, ending the quarter with a total of 156,000 locations, a 23% increase from a year ago [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International SaaS ARPU increased by 20% year-over-year, indicating strong traction in international markets [12] - GPV (Gross Payment Volume) was $52 billion, growing 24% year-over-year, with GPV per location slightly up due to stronger same-store sales trends [24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to double its market share in the core U.S. SMB business and expand into new verticals and geographies [7][9] - Key priorities include scaling locations, demonstrating growth in new markets, increasing customer adoption of the platform, and investing with discipline while expanding margins [9][18] - The company is focused on building a durable growth business that can scale to $5 billion and $10 billion in ARR over time [8][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to sustain strong growth and expand adjusted EBITDA margins, with expectations for continued net adds in 2025 and 2026 [20][29] - The management noted that restaurants tend to be resilient even in challenging economic conditions, with customers performing well [55][56] Other Important Information - The company has secured partnerships with major brands like Uber and Nordstrom, enhancing its market presence [8][12] - The company is investing in AI-driven capabilities, such as Toast IQ, to improve customer experience and operational efficiency [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: About GPV per location performance - Management noted that GPV per location exceeded expectations in Q3, attributing part of the success to the platform's ability to help restaurants run more profitable businesses [34][35] Question: Concerns about competition and market share sustainability - Management highlighted that win rates against major competitors are up year-over-year, and they are on track to double market share in the core market [38][39] Question: Opportunities with consumer engagement - Management discussed the potential of their dense network of restaurants to enhance consumer experiences and drive new product offerings [47][50] Question: Performance during AWS outage - Management confirmed that the business held up well during the AWS outage, allowing customers to operate offline and process orders once the system was restored [65][68] Question: Sustainability of the take rate increase - Management expressed confidence in the ability to drive take rate up over time through targeted pricing moves and cost optimization [72][74] Question: Financial impact of Toast IQ adoption - Management emphasized that the focus is currently on driving adoption and customer value, with monetization strategies being explored for the future [80][83] Question: Confidence in increased net adds for 2026 - Management indicated that new TAMs (Total Addressable Markets) are expected to contribute significantly to net adds, alongside continued performance in the core business [92][94]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a 34% year-over-year growth in top-line revenue, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding to 35% [5][20][25] - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) surpassed $2 billion for the first time, doubling from $1 billion in just two years [18][20] - Total fintech and subscription gross profit increased by 34% year-over-year, with a total take rate of 98 basis points, up 7 basis points from the previous year [20][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - SaaS ARR grew 28% year-over-year, driven by location growth and a mid-single-digit increase in SaaS ARPU [21][22] - Payments ARR increased by 31%, with fintech gross profit growing 35% year-over-year [22][23] - The company added approximately 7,500 net locations in Q3, bringing the total to 156,000, a 23% increase from the previous year [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International SaaS ARPU rose by 20% year-over-year, indicating strong traction in international markets [11] - The company is expanding its presence in food and beverage retail, with new customer acquisitions contributing to growth [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to double its market share in the core U.S. SMB business while expanding into new verticals and geographies [5][6][16] - Key priorities include scaling locations, demonstrating growth in new markets, increasing platform adoption, and investing in high-priority areas [7][16] - The company is focused on leveraging AI and data to enhance its platform, with products like Toast IQ driving customer engagement and operational efficiency [14][15][48] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining strong growth and expanding margins, with a target of reaching $10 billion in ARR over the next decade [18][19][26] - The company remains optimistic about its ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges, citing resilience in the restaurant sector [38] Other Important Information - Free cash flow grew to $153 million in Q3, with nearly 100% conversion from adjusted EBITDA [25] - The company repurchased 1.5 million shares, totaling $54 million, as part of its capital allocation strategy [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much of the GPV per location increase was driven by customer mix versus Toast's technology? - Management noted that GPV per location exceeded expectations, attributing part of the success to the platform's ability to help restaurants operate more profitably [30] Question: What are the competitive concerns regarding market share? - Management highlighted improved win rates against competitors and emphasized the strength of their core platform as a differentiator [31][33] Question: What opportunities does the dense restaurant network provide? - Management discussed the potential for enhanced consumer experiences and new product offerings due to the growing network of restaurants [36][37] Question: How did the business perform during the AWS outage? - Management confirmed that the platform's design allowed restaurants to operate effectively during the outage, minimizing impact on operations [42][43] Question: What is the outlook for net adds in 2026? - Management expects continued strong performance in net adds, driven by both core business growth and contributions from new TAMs [52]

Core Viewpoint - Toast Inc. reported a significant earnings miss for Q3 2025, with adjusted EPS of $0.16 compared to expectations of $0.23, yet the stock price surged 7.6% in after-hours trading, indicating investor confidence in future growth despite the quarterly setback [2][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $1.63 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.59 billion by 2.8% and representing a year-over-year increase of 25.1% [3][10]. - Gross profit increased by 34.2% to $432 million, while operating income more than doubled to $84 million from $34 million in Q3 2024 [5][10]. - Free cash flow was reported at $153 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose to $176 million from $113 million a year ago [5][10]. - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $2.0 billion, marking a 30% increase from the previous year [3][10]. Earnings Miss Analysis - The adjusted EPS miss of $0.16 was 30% below the expected $0.23, marking the first miss after two consecutive beats in Q1 and Q2 2025 [6][10]. - Net income was reported at $105 million, an increase of 87.5% year over year, suggesting that the EPS miss may be attributed to share count changes or one-time charges [6][10]. Investor Sentiment - The after-hours rally indicates that investors view the earnings miss as a temporary issue rather than a sign of fundamental weakness [7][12]. - Management's optimistic guidance for Q4 2025, projecting non-GAAP gross profit of $480 million to $490 million, contributed to the positive market reaction [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - Toast launched Toast Advertising and expanded its Toast IQ intelligence platform with conversational AI capabilities, indicating a focus on growth beyond traditional restaurant operations [9][10]. - A strategic partnership with Uber Technologies highlights Toast's ambitions to expand its market reach [9][11]. Future Outlook - Management emphasized the potential for growth in new markets and use cases over the next decade, reinforcing a long-term growth narrative [11][12]. - The upcoming Q4 execution will be critical for Toast to meet its guidance and demonstrate sustainable profitability while investing in AI and market expansion [14][15].