Core Insights - United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate [1][10] - Quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $2.38 surpassed the estimate of $2.22 but represented a 13.5% decline year over year [1][10] - Revenues reached $24.4 billion, exceeding the estimate of $24 billion, but decreased by 3.3% year over year [1][10] Q4 Earnings Summary - U.S. Domestic Package revenues were $16.8 billion, down 3.2% year over year, attributed to a decline in volume, while revenue per piece increased by 8.3% [3] - The segment's adjusted operating profit fell 2.7% year over year to $1.71 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 10.2% [3] - International Package revenues totaled $5.05 billion, up 2.5% year over year, driven by a 7.1% increase in revenue per piece, although adjusted operating profit decreased by 14.5% to $908 million [4] - Supply Chain Solutions revenues were $2.67 billion, down 12.7% year over year, with an adjusted operating profit of $276 million, reflecting a 2.8% decline [5] 2026 Outlook - Management provided optimistic guidance for full-year 2026, projecting revenues of approximately $89.7 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $87.9 billion and the 2025 figure of $88.7 billion [2][6] - Estimated capital expenditures for 2026 are around $3 billion, with expected dividend payments of approximately $5.4 billion, pending board approval [6]

Core Viewpoint - RXO is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues, which could significantly influence its stock price in the near term [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.02 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 33.3% [3]. - Revenues are projected to reach $1.45 billion, representing a 56% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 10.53% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for RXO is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +50.00% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading indicates a likely earnings beat, particularly when combined with a strong Zacks Rank [10]. - RXO currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat despite the positive Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, RXO was expected to post a loss of $0.02 per share but actually reported a loss of $0.03, resulting in a surprise of -50.00% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, RXO has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Conclusion - RXO does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].

Q2 2025 Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $27.1 million[3], compared to $31.7 million in Q2 2024[3, 4], a decrease of 14.5% - The Transportation segment's Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $11.2 million in Q2 2024 to $8.5 million in Q2 2025[3, 4], a decrease of 24.1% - The Specialty Products segment's Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $5.7 million in Q2 2024 to $4.4 million in Q2 2025[3, 4], a decrease of 22.8% - The Sulfur Services segment's Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $10.6 million in Q2 2024 to $9.7 million in Q2 2025[3, 4], a decrease of 8.5% - The Terminalling & Storage segment's Adjusted EBITDA increased from $8.0 million in Q2 2024 to $8.4 million in Q2 2025[3, 4], an increase of 5% Full-Year 2025 Guidance - The company projects a full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $109.1 million[5] - Total segment adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $123.8 million[5] - Maintenance capital expenditures are estimated at $20.5 million, and plant turnaround costs at $5.4 million[5] - Total distributable cash flow is projected to be $27.8 million[5] - Total adjusted free cash flow is projected to be $18.8 million[5]