And let's bring in our first panel now, which is Barry Knap, the director of research at IronIides Macro, and Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Managing Partner. Welcome to you both. Tom, you're more I don't want to make it sound like you have a point of view other than you're expecting a more hawkish Fed and Barry, you're expecting one that's a little bit more doubbish.So Tom, you're more in line with consensus right now. What would that look like. And why are you still bullish on stock prices.>> Uh, well ...

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25% [1] - Further easing is anticipated, potentially bringing rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months, with the fed funds futures market indicating a drop to less than 3% by the end of 2026 [1] Treasury Yields and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will lead to lower Treasury yields, encouraging risk-taking in the economy and financial markets [2] - However, the expected Fed rate cuts may primarily affect the two-year Treasury yield, while long-term yields could remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and persistent inflation [2] Debt Supply and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills and longer-duration Treasury notes to finance tax cuts and increased defense spending, potentially adding over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years and increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion [3] - The increased supply of debt is likely to pressure bond prices down and lift yields, particularly for longer-term securities [4] Investor Sentiment and Yield Curve - Investors are demanding higher yields for long-term Treasuries due to concerns about inflation and dollar depreciation linked to high debt levels, which may prevent long-term bond yields from falling significantly [6] - The ongoing steepening of the yield curve indicates rising concerns about fiscal policy, as reflected in the widening spread between different maturities of Treasury yields [5]