Economic Impact of Winter Storm Fern - Winter Storm Fern is projected to cause a temporary decline in U.S. economic growth, with Bank of America estimating a 0.5–1.5 percentage point drag on Q1 2026 GDP, similar to the impact of Winter Storm Viola in 2021 [1] - The storm's disruption is seen as a delay in economic activity rather than a permanent demand destruction, which is crucial for investors to understand [1] Consumer Spending and Resilience - Bank of America's card data indicates that consumer spending rose by 3.3% year over year in mid-January, showing strength in groceries and lodging, suggesting that the storm interrupted ongoing activity rather than revealing underlying demand weakness [3] - Consumer Staples ETFs, such as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP), are expected to perform well during uncertain periods due to their focus on essential goods [3][4] Travel and Cyclical Sectors - The travel and cyclical sectors are facing immediate challenges, with over 13,000 flights canceled and 70% of the U.S. population under winter weather alerts, impacting ETFs related to travel and discretionary spending [5] - Historical data shows that similar disruptions in 2021 were followed by significant rebounds in these sectors as mobility recovered [5][6] Potential for Q2 Growth - The first quarter's economic data is expected to be noisy due to seasonal effects, and Winter Storm Fern may exaggerate Q1 weakness while masking potential upside risks for Q2 growth [8] - Bank of America suggests that there is as much potential for Q2 GDP growth as there is downside for Q1, indicating a timing reshuffle rather than a structural slowdown [8] ETF Investment Considerations - Investors in ETFs should be cautious not to confuse weather-driven volatility with a structural slowdown, as growth may rebound in the spring, benefiting cyclical and mobility-linked ETFs [9] - Consumer Discretionary Sector ETFs, such as iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:IYC), are positioned to bounce back strongly if consumer pullback is temporary, driven by pent-up demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines (DAL) provided an earnings update that positively impacted investor sentiment, highlighting the stability of airline stocks despite market volatility [1] Group 1: Airline Industry Overview - The US Global Jets ETF (JETS), with over $700 million in assets, has experienced significant volatility, indicated by its nearly 1.4x beta over the past five years [2] - JETS has not provided dividends recently, and its historical performance shows a price range peaking around $35 and dropping as low as $11 since its IPO in 2015 [4] - The JETS ETF and individual airline stocks are generally not considered strong long-term investments, but they may present trading opportunities [5] Group 2: Composition of JETS - Approximately one-third of JETS is comprised of three major U.S. airlines, while the remainder includes regional carriers and companies that support the airline industry [6] Group 3: Current Market Sentiment - The performance of JETS has been stagnant for the past decade, with no clear directional bias observed in its chart, reflecting a neutral market position [7]