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思摩尔国际(06969):雾化主业修复趋势明确,HNB成长空间广阔,加大分红回馈股东
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-25 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.013 billion HKD in H1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase. However, net profit was 492 million HKD, down 28% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 737 million HKD, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. The company also reported a share-based payment expense of 245 million HKD for H1 2025 and declared an interim dividend of 0.2 HKD per share, totaling approximately 1.24 billion HKD in dividends to shareholders [2][6] Revenue Analysis - The revenue growth in H1 2025 was primarily driven by the recovery of the vaping business. Specifically, the TOB (business-to-business) segment saw a 19% year-on-year increase, accounting for 79% of total revenue. Revenue from the TOB segment in the US, mainland China, Europe, and other regions showed varied performance, with increases of 1%, decreases of 6%, and increases of 38% respectively. The TOC (business-to-consumer) segment also grew by 14%, making up 21% of total revenue, with significant growth in mainland China at 2595% year-on-year [10] Profitability Analysis - The overall performance met the central expectations of the earnings forecast, with adjusted profits down 2% year-on-year. The decline in net profit was attributed to insufficient revenue and gross profit growth to offset rising expenses, including a significant increase in share-based payment expenses due to a stock incentive plan launched in late 2024. Additionally, distribution and sales expenses rose by 31% to 491 million HKD, and professional fees related to legal and compliance services surged by 820% to 140 million HKD [10] HNB Business Development - A significant milestone for the company in H1 2025 was the launch of Glo Hilo in collaboration with British American Tobacco. The product received positive consumer feedback during trials in Serbia and Sendai, Japan, with highlights including a close-to-tobacco flavor and reduced preheating time. The company plans to expand Glo Hilo across Japan in September 2025 and into more key markets later in the year. The company aims to continue investing in R&D for HNB products to maintain technological leadership and enhance customer adoption rates [10] Growth Potential - The company is optimistic about its growth potential in the global new tobacco trend. The vaping segment is showing signs of recovery, benefiting from regulatory shifts and increased market share among major clients. The HNB business has significant growth potential, especially considering the current market share of IQOS at over 70%. The industry is expected to continue growing at a double-digit annual rate, with ample room for penetration as the current global penetration rate is only about 6%. Long-term growth trends are also positive for medical vaping and special-purpose vaping [10]