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Duolingo Shares Drop 18% After Soft 2026 Outlook Despite Q4 Beat
Financial Modeling Prep· 2026-02-27 22:10
Core Insights - Duolingo Inc. reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded analyst estimates but provided weaker-than-expected guidance for 2026, resulting in an 18% drop in shares as the company shifts focus toward user growth over short-term profitability [1] Financial Performance - The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.84, slightly above the analyst estimate of $0.83 [1] - Revenue increased by 35% year over year to $282.9 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $275.74 million [1] Guidance and Projections - First-quarter revenue guidance of $288.5 million fell short of the $291.8 million consensus forecast [2] - Full-year revenue guidance is set between $1.20 billion and $1.22 billion, trailing analyst expectations of $1.26 billion, with a midpoint implying approximately 17% growth, below prior growth rates [2] User Metrics - Daily active users (DAU) increased by 30% year over year to 52.7 million, while paid subscribers grew by 28% to 12.2 million [3] - DAU growth is projected to slow to approximately 20% in 2026, down from growth exceeding 40% in earlier periods [3] Strategic Changes - Duolingo expects bookings growth of around 11% in 2026, compared to nearly 20% under its prior strategy [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to decline to approximately 25% from 29.5% in 2025, reflecting strategic shifts such as moving the Video Call feature to the standard subscription tier and reducing friction for free users [4] - Management estimates reinvesting over $50 million in foregone bookings to enhance the free user experience [4]