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Token Launch Performance - A significant majority of 2025's most hyped token launches turned into instant bag holder situations despite blue chip optics [6] - Losers in the studied group shed between 25% and 74% of their total dollar value since their respective token generation event [11] - Only a roughly 1 in 3 rate for tokens outperformed BTC, indicating hyped token launches are far from a guaranteed success [13] Key Factors Influencing Token Success - Early relative strength (outperforming BTC in the first couple of weeks) is a strong indicator of continued success [13][14] - High premiums for public investors compared to private sale rounds often weigh down price, unless the project has strong product-market fit and a compelling narrative [26] - Initially low circulating supply can be bullish if there's a sensible unlock schedule [32] Market Timing and Volume - Launching a token right after a big BTC rally can be detrimental, as the market may be exhausted [35][36] - High day-one trading volume is important, but a sharp drop-off in volume (e g, by half in the first month) can signal fading interest and potential price decline [47][48] Risk Management - Investors should be skeptical of launches backed by big exchanges or prominent investors, and remember the overarching themes [11] - Ignoring Bitcoin's market movements can be risky when evaluating a new token launch [43]

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