Core Insights - S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) is set to announce its Q3 2025 results on October 30, with a history of exceeding earnings estimates in the past four quarters, averaging a surprise of 6.1% [1][9]. Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SPGI's revenues is $3.8 billion, reflecting a 7.3% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2][11]. - Market Intelligence revenues are projected at $1.2 billion, indicating a 6.3% year-over-year growth, driven by revenue transformation and high demand for specific services [3]. - Ratings revenues are expected to reach $1.1 billion, up 1.6% from the previous year, supported by non-transaction revenues and a successful private credit strategy [4]. - Commodity Insights revenues are anticipated at $555.4 million, suggesting a 6.4% growth year-over-year, aided by enterprise contracts and strong performance in Global Trading Services [5]. - Mobility revenues are estimated to grow by 8.6% to $447.4 million, driven by increased dealer revenues and improved underwriting volumes [6]. - Indices revenues are expected to be $435.1 million, indicating a 4.6% rise year-over-year, influenced by higher asset-linked fees and increased trading volumes [7]. Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $2.1 billion, a 3.6% increase from the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 56.3%, slightly down from 57% [8]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is $4.40, reflecting a 13.1% growth year-over-year, driven by increased revenues and expanded margins [8][11]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts an earnings beat for SPGI, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.66% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 6% year over year, with subscription revenue rising by 7% [9] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 10%, and adjusted expenses increased by 2% year over year [33][39] - The company achieved 150 basis points of margin expansion on a trailing twelve-month basis [9][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Market Intelligence division reported a revenue increase of 5%, with organic constant currency growth at 7% [36] - Private markets revenue grew by 11% year over year, driven by demand for middle market CLOs and project finance ratings [34] - Ratings revenue increased by 1% year over year, with transaction revenue decreasing by 4% [38] - Mobility revenue increased by 10% year over year, with dealable revenue up by 11% [44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Build issuance declined by 4% year over year, but there was a recovery in June, marking the second highest June since 2019 [18][19] - Equity markets rebounded quickly from the lows seen in April, benefiting from strong net inflows for indices [20] - The company expects flat build issuance in the second half of the year and anticipates one to two rate cuts from the U.S. Fed [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strategic investments while managing expenses, aiming for strong capital returns [9] - There is a significant emphasis on artificial intelligence and data distribution strategies, with partnerships with hyperscale partners [26][30] - The planned separation of the Mobility division is on track, with a new CEO appointed for the standalone company [11][45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining organic growth, particularly in Market Intelligence, despite market uncertainties [56][60] - The outlook for the rest of the year assumes flat U.S. equity markets and slow but positive GDP growth across major economic zones [20] - Management remains cautious about potential volatility in the markets but is optimistic about the company's ability to deliver strong results [90] Other Important Information - The company has achieved 95% of its targeted revenue synergies, with run rate revenue synergies at $332 million [35] - New product launches and enhancements in AI have been well received by customers, contributing to revenue growth [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the sustainability of the organic growth in Market Intelligence? - Management highlighted a fundamental transformation in the commercial teams and strong execution, which supports the sustainability of growth [58][59] Question: What factors contributed to the strong margin and expense management? - Management noted ongoing productivity improvements and strategic investment spending patterns as key factors [66][67] Question: Can you elaborate on the criteria for moving strategic clients into the Chief Client Office? - The Chief Client Office manages a select group of clients to provide individualized attention and enhance value creation [70][72] Question: How is the company addressing competitive dynamics in private credit? - Management emphasized consistent methodology and strong engagement with major sponsors to maintain leadership in the private credit market [84][86] Question: What milestones should investors track for the Mobility spin-off? - Key milestones include internal preparations, regulatory filings, and the establishment of a management team for the new entity [96][98] Question: What is the outlook for Mobility revenue growth in the second half? - Management indicated that while there may be some normalization, strong performance in the CARFAX business supports overall growth [101][103]