Core Insights - Costco's stock has experienced a decline despite strong business performance, with shares trading below $900 and showing a negative return for 2025 [1][2] Business Performance - Costco remains a robust retailer, with a successful membership model and private-label brands driving consistent traffic and high renewal rates [2] - In fiscal Q4, net sales increased by 8% year-over-year to $84.4 billion, while full-year net sales rose by 8.1% to $269.9 billion, primarily due to strong comparable sales growth [3] - Comparable sales grew by 5.7%, with e-commerce sales increasing by 13.6% in the quarter and 15.6% for the year [3] - Earnings per share in Q4 rose by 11% year-over-year, supported by the opening of 10 new warehouses, including several internationally [4] Membership and Revenue - Membership fee income grew by 14% year-over-year to approximately $1.72 billion, with 81 million paid household memberships, a 6.3% increase from the previous year [5] - Executive members, who increased by 9.3% year-over-year, accounted for nearly three-quarters of worldwide sales [5] - Renewal rates in the U.S. and Canada dipped to 92.3%, with worldwide renewal at 89.8%, attributed to more online signups and a past promotional campaign [6] Valuation Concerns - Costco's current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 49, significantly higher than the S&P 500's ratio of about 26, indicating limited margin for error if growth slows [7][9] - While membership fee income is growing, the recent increase in membership fees may limit future growth in this area, as such increases are typically spaced out by more than five years [10] Financial Position - Costco ended fiscal 2025 with over $15 billion in cash and short-term investments against $5.7 billion in long-term debt, resulting in a net cash position that supports dividends and ongoing expansion [11] Investment Outlook - Investors may be overpaying for Costco shares given the high valuation, and it may be prudent for new investors to wait for a better entry point [12]