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Recent Netflix deal could put company in extended period of risk, says Rosenblatt's Barton Crockett
Youtube· 2025-12-08 20:08
Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of Netflix to neutral reflects concerns over the uncertainty surrounding a potential deal involving Warner Brothers, which may lead to risks regarding Netflix's content strategy and financial returns [1][4][12]. Group 1: Deal Uncertainty - There is significant uncertainty about the approval process for the deal, which could extend for years and may face legal challenges, potentially delaying the acquisition [2][3]. - The potential for a bidding war raises questions about Netflix's willingness to spend significantly on the deal, with no clear upper limit established [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - The projected synergies from the deal are estimated at nearly $6 billion in EBITDA, but this represents a small percentage of the total cost, raising concerns about the return on investment [4]. - There is skepticism regarding whether Netflix can effectively leverage the Warner Brothers content to drive subscriber growth, especially given their existing success with scripted content [10][11]. Group 3: Strategic Direction - The company has been successful in revitalizing existing content, leading to questions about the necessity of acquiring Warner Brothers to continue this trend [10][11]. - There are suggestions that Netflix might benefit more from investing in sports or user-generated content rather than pursuing the Warner Brothers acquisition [11].