Company Overview - Casella Waste is a Vermont-based waste management company founded in 1975, growing from a one-truck operation to a $6.37 billion enterprise over fifty years, specializing in resource renewal and sustainability through recycling services [2] - The company operates in nine states, providing services such as trash collection, organics disposal, compressed natural gas collection, landfill operations, and specialized waste management [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Casella reported revenue of $485.4 million, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase and exceeding forecasts by $9 million [7] - The non-GAAP EPS for Q3 was 42 cents, up 2 cents from the previous year and beating expectations by 10 cents [7] Analyst Insights - Raymond James analyst Patrick Brown views the post-Q2 stock pullback of Casella as overdone, expecting a rebound as the company completes its systems integration and realizes synergies from recent acquisitions [8] - Brown has assigned a Strong Buy rating to Casella with a price target of $120, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% [8] Market Context - The current bull market, which began in fall 2022, has seen the S&P 500 advance approximately 16.5% in 2025, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq rising about 20.5% [5] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by resilient growth, fiscal tailwinds, and robust corporate earnings, suggesting continued support for the bull market [4] Competitive Landscape - Casella's versatility allows it to serve a wide range of industries, including agriculture, retail, construction, and municipalities, highlighting its adaptability in waste management [6]

Group 1: Technology Stocks Performance - Technology stocks have experienced significant growth over the past decade, driven by transformative products that have changed consumer behavior [1] - Digital channels such as social media and online services have become integral to daily life, influencing various sectors [1] Group 2: Consumer Staples Sector - Companies in the Consumer Staples sector, such as waste management and uniform providers, have shown strong performance despite being less flashy [2][3] - These businesses benefit from steady demand regardless of economic conditions, providing stability and predictability [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Cintas (CTAS) has gained +810% over the last decade, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +325% gain, with an annualized return of +24.6% [4] - Waste Management (WM) has also outpaced the S&P 500, demonstrating resilience during market volatility, particularly in 2022 [5] Group 4: Investment Insights - Investing in less-discussed companies like Cintas and Waste Management can yield substantial returns without the volatility associated with tech stocks [8] - These companies exemplify the idea that consistent and dependable growth can come from executing simple business models exceptionally well [8]

Economic Outlook - The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is decreasing from a peak of 60% to below 50% due to the Trump administration easing aggressive tariff policies, which has allowed the S&P 500 to recover from a correction in March [1] Company Analysis Walmart (WMT) - Walmart has historically thrived during recessions due to its essential grocery offerings and reputation for affordability, attracting budget-conscious customers [3] - Approximately two-thirds of Walmart's inventory is produced in the U.S., providing a buffer against global trade tensions [4] - Over the past year, Walmart has achieved a 47% return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10% return, with analysts optimistic about steady growth in the coming months [4] HCA Healthcare (HCA) - HCA Healthcare is the largest non-governmental hospital chain in the U.S. and has shown resilience during economic downturns, particularly in critical care sectors [5] - The company reported a remarkable growth of +236.97% and aims for a 29% market share by 2030 [5] - Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for HCA from $405 to $444, indicating a potential 16% upside from the stock's previous closing price [6] Waste Management (WM) - Waste Management has experienced a +135.87% growth over the past five years, as demand for waste collection and recycling services remains stable during recessions [9] - The waste management industry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% by 2030, driven by advancements in recycling technologies and increasing environmental awareness [10] - Recent evaluations by JPMorgan indicate optimism regarding WM's growth prospects, with a valuation of approximately 16x forward-year EV/EBITDA and a free cash flow yield of 3% [11]