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Canada-China EV Trade Deal: What it Means for TSLA, GM, Geely & BYD
ZACKS· 2026-01-20 14:10
Core Insights - Canada is easing tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), allowing up to 49,000 vehicles annually at a 6.1% tariff, a significant reduction from the previous 100% duty imposed in 2024 [1][2] - The deal includes a price-based clause, reserving half of the annual quota for EVs priced under CAD 35,000, aimed at increasing access to affordable electric vehicles [1][2] Group 1: Impact on Major Players - Tesla is well-positioned to benefit from the new tariff structure, having already established a production base in China and configured its Shanghai Gigafactory for a Canada-specific Model Y, leading to a 460% year-over-year increase in China-built auto imports through Vancouver prior to the 2024 tariff [5][6] - Geely's brands, including Volvo and Polestar, can resume importing Chinese-built models, which had been paused due to tariffs, leveraging their existing brand recognition and dealer networks in Canada [7][9] - General Motors is unlikely to gain from the revised tariff framework as its China EVs are not approved for sale in Canada, and significant redesigns would be required for compliance with Canadian safety standards [10][11][12] Group 2: Opportunities and Challenges - BYD fits within the new deal's scope but faces challenges in the near term due to the need for certification and the establishment of distribution networks in Canada, despite having a local electric bus assembly plant in Ontario [13][14][15] - The policy shift is expected to lower prices for consumers and accelerate EV adoption in Canada, with China accounting for approximately 70% of global EV production [3]