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ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 bond
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固定收益部市场日报-20260330
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-03-30 07:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain a buy rating on ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28, believing the market over - reacted to its FY25 results, and the bond offers a good risk - return profile [7] - Maintain a buy rating on LNGFORs, as consistent positive FCF underpins Longfor's credit profile, and the current valuation offers good carry plays [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - ZHOSHK 28 rose 1.6pts last Friday due to better - buying flow and less - than - alarming FY25 results. S&P downgraded Zhongsheng to BBB - from BBB with a stable outlook [2] - EHICAR 26 - 27 edged 0.1 - 0.5pt higher, while MEITUA 5 - 10yr tranches widened 1 - 3bps [2] - WESCHI 28 - 29 lost 0.5pt. Fitch revised the outlook on West China Cement to negative from stable and affirmed B ratings [2] - FAEACO 12.814 Perp/LIFUNGs lost 0.2 - 0.4pt [2] - In Chinese properties, LNGFOR 27 - 32/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 29 were 0.3pt lower to 0.2pt higher. Longfor's FY25 revenue declined 23.7% to RMB97.3bn, and GPM decreased from 16.0% in FY24 to 9.7% in FY25 [2] - Seazen Group's FY25 revenue was down 40% to RMB53.1bn [2] - VNKRLE 29 gained 0.5pt, while VNKRLE 27 lost 0.1pt [2] - In SE Asian space, GLPSP Perps/GLPCHI 29 gained 0.1 - 0.8pt, but GLPSP 28 was 0.2pt lower. TOPTB/PTTGC Perps leaked 0.3 - 0.4pt. VEDLN 28 - 33s were 0.2 - 0.6pt weaker [2] - In KR space, HYNMTR/HYUELE and the recent new issues LGENSO 31s traded 2–4bps wider [2] - JP IG credits SUMITR/NTT/SMBCAC/NOMURA/SUMI widened 1 - 3bps amid heavy selling. Japanese and Yankee AT1s and insurance subs were down by up to 1.0pt in the belly and the long end, and lost 0.3 - 0.4pt in the front end [2] - Lower - yielding/IG USD LGFVs closed 50 - 70bps wider on the bid side amid AM selling. Higher - yielding CNH LGFVs were more resilient, but liquidity gradually shrank [2] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 rose 1.6pts to 96.6; GLPSP 4.6 PERP rose 0.8pts to 48.0; ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 rose 0.6pts to 21.0; HYSAN 2.82 09/04/29 rose 0.6pts to 94.0; CHNAAR 6 08/14/28 rose 0.6pts to 99.1 [4] - Top Underperformers: ACPM 4.85 PERP fell 1.2pts to 79.4; HCELEC 4.65 12/29/26 fell 1.2pts to 63.2; BNP 6 7/8 PERP fell 1.0pts to 96.1; LLOYDS 6 5/8 PERP fell 0.9pts to 94.8; SUMIBK 6.45 PERP fell 0.9pts to 97.9 [4] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (-1.67%), Dow (-1.73%) and Nasdaq (-2.15%) were lower. 2/5 - year UST yield was lower while 10/30 - year UST yield was higher. 2/5/10/30 - year yield was at 3.88%/4.06%/4.44%/4.98% [5] Desk Analyst Comments - ZHOSHK: The market over - reacted to the profit warning. Maintain buy on ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28, considering the company's positive FCF, net debt reduction, and comfortable liquidity [6][7] - LNGFOR: Consistent positive FCF underpins Longfor's credit profile. Maintain buy on LNGFORs [9][10] Longfor Analysis - In FY25, Longfor's revenue fell 23.7% yoy to RMB97.3bn, gross profit declined 53.8% yoy to RMB9.4bn, and GPM compressed to 9.7% from 16.0% in FY24 [13] - Longfor recorded a core attributable loss of RMB1.7bn in FY25, compared to a profit of RMB7.0bn in FY24 [14] - As of Dec'25, Longfor's unrecognized sales were RMB99.1bn, and margin pressure remains significant [14] - Longfor continued to generate positive FCF, delivering RMB5.8bn in FY25, and expects RMB5 - 10bn in FY26 [15] - In FY25, Longfor extended the average debt tenor to 12.1 years from 10.3 years and lowered the average funding cost to 3.5% from 4.0% [19] - Longfor passed through the debt repayment hump in FY25, repaying onshore bonds totaling RMB13.5bn and offshore loans totaling cRMB16.6bn [20] - The next USD bond maturity will be Apr'27, and the outstanding amount of Longfor's offshore USD bonds is USD2bn. Expect more repurchases [20] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new issues were priced today [22] - There are no new issues in the pipeline today [24] News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 140 credit bonds were issued last Friday with an amount of RMB74bn. Month - to - date, 2,286 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,838bn, a 6.7% yoy increase [26] - Australia is increasing oversight of the private credit industry [26] - Bank of East Asia tapped RMB250mn dim sum bond BNKEA 2.95 09/09/29 [26] - China Oil and Gas FY25 revenue down 14% yoy to HKD15.2bn (cUSD1.9bn) [26] - Seazen Group FY25 revenue down 40% yoy to RMB53.1bn (cUSD7.7bn) [26] - Greentown plans to issue onshore 3 - year MTN up to RMB1bn [26] - JD.com's planned purchase of German consumer electronics retailer Ceconomy has not been approved by Austrian regulators [26] - Moody's upgraded Sammaan Capital by one notch to B1 from B2 on RBI approval for proposed capital infusion by Avenir; outlook changed to positive from revise for upgrade [26] - Lai Sun Development 1HFY26 adjusted EBITDA down 23% yoy to HKD379.1mn (cUSD48.4mn) [26] - San Miguel CEO said Petron remains available for repurchase by the Philippine government; Petron purchased Russian crude oil [26] - SoftBank Group is raising a USD40bn bridge loan to back a plan to invest an additional USD30bn in ChatGPT maker OpenAI Group [26] - A group of lenders loaned INR25.8bn (cUSD271.7mn) to Vedanta Ltd in Mar'26 [26] - Fitch revised the outlook of West China Cement to negative from stable; B rating affirmed [26]