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Palantir Stock Drops 17% From Its High. Wall Street Has Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for What Happens Next.
The Motley Fool· 2026-01-19 08:50
Core Viewpoint - Most Wall Street analysts expect Palantir to reach or exceed $200 per share by 2026, despite recent stock fluctuations due to valuation concerns and a shift away from software stocks [1][3]. Financial Performance - Palantir's revenue increased by 62% to $1.1 billion in the third quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of revenue acceleration [5]. - The company achieved a Rule of 40 score of 114%, which is considered unprecedented for a software company [5]. - Current stock price is $170 per share, with analysts' price forecasts ranging from $50 to $255, indicating a potential 70% downside and a 50% upside [3]. Market Position and Recognition - Palantir is recognized as a leader in AI decisioning platforms by Forrester Research and in AI-driven source-to-pay platforms by the International Data Corp [4]. - Analysts from various firms, including CFRA Research and Morgan Stanley, have praised Palantir for its strong financial results and positioning as the enterprise AI standard [6][7]. Valuation Concerns - The stock trades at 105 times sales, significantly higher than the software industry average, raising concerns about its valuation [7]. - Mark Giarelli from Morningstar noted that Palantir's price-to-sales ratio represents a 350% premium compared to other AI companies, suggesting a poor risk-reward profile [8]. - Rishi Jaluria from RBC Capital expressed skepticism about Palantir's addressable market and projected a long-term commercial revenue growth rate of only 15% [9]. Investor Sentiment - Michael Burry disclosed a significant bet against Palantir, indicating skepticism about the uniqueness of its software and its high valuation [10]. - Despite strong financial results, the overall valuation of Palantir is seen as difficult to justify, with historical trends suggesting a potential drawdown [11].