Core Viewpoint - Tesla's future appears promising, particularly with the potential of its new robotaxi service, which could add over $1 trillion in value by the end of 2026, but the elimination of federal regulatory credits poses a significant challenge that could impact one of its most profitable revenue sources [1][10]. Revenue Sources - Tesla is expected to lose part of its $2.76 billion revenue source from automotive regulatory credits, which are earned through the sale of low-emission vehicles [2]. - These credits have historically provided nearly 100% profit margins, significantly benefiting Tesla and other EV manufacturers [3]. Regulatory Changes - The elimination of federal regulatory credits in the U.S. is anticipated due to recent legislative changes, which would negate the value of purchasing these credits from Tesla [4]. - The changes will only affect federal programs, while state programs, such as those in California and New York, will remain intact [7]. Impact on Financials - Analysts estimate that approximately 75% of Tesla's regulatory credit revenue comes from U.S. sources, with a significant portion likely derived from California's state-level program [8]. - Tesla's net income fell 71% year-over-year to $409 million, with regulatory credit sales reaching $595 million last quarter, highlighting the importance of these credits for maintaining profitability [9]. Long-term Considerations - The elimination of federal regulatory credits will not eliminate Tesla but will complicate growth initiatives, which is a critical factor for long-term investors to consider [10].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly reduced its forecast for Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries, raising concerns about the company's sales performance amid political tensions involving CEO Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump [2][3]. Group 1: Sales Forecast and Performance - Goldman Sachs analysts have cut their forecast for Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries to 365,000, which is below the consensus estimate of 405,000 [2]. - This forecast represents an 18% decline compared to the same period last year, marking the weakest quarterly deliveries growth since at least 2015 [2]. Group 2: Political Tensions and Brand Sentiment - The ongoing conflict between Musk and Trump could further damage Tesla's brand sentiment, particularly among left-leaning consumers, who have historically been the primary market for electric vehicles [3][4]. - Analysts warn that this political discord may alienate multiple sides of the political spectrum, potentially impacting Tesla's sales and market perception [4]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - Despite the negative news, Tesla's stock saw a 6% rebound on Friday, although it remains down 9% since Wednesday [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Musk-Trump relationship has raised concerns among analysts regarding Tesla's near-term outlook [5]. Group 4: Potential Impact of Government Relations - Trump has threatened to cancel federal contracts with Musk's companies, which could indirectly affect Tesla, particularly through the potential restriction of automotive regulatory credits [6]. - Tesla reported $595 million in regulatory credits, which accounted for about two-thirds of its net profit of $934 million in the first quarter of 2025, indicating the significance of these credits to Tesla's financial health [6]. Group 5: Background Context - Since Musk's acquisition of Twitter (now X) in 2022, Tesla's stock has faced downward pressure due to Musk's increasing political involvement [7]. - The relationship between Musk and Trump has deteriorated, as evidenced by Trump's decision to sell his Tesla Model S, further complicating the dynamics for Tesla [8]. Group 6: Upcoming Events - Tesla is expected to report its Q2 delivery numbers on July 2, which will provide further insights into the company's performance amid these challenges [9].