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Tariffs Dim Hologic's 2025 Expectations: Time to Reassess the Stock?
ZACKSยท 2025-05-12 13:46
Core Viewpoint - Hologic (HOLX) has revised its earnings forecast for fiscal 2025 downward, despite exceeding expectations in its latest second-quarter results, primarily due to pressures from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [1][6]. Financial Performance - Hologic's revenue target for fiscal 2025 remains unchanged at $4.05-$4.10 billion, reflecting a $100 million reduction from initial guidance [1]. - The company expects adjusted EPS for fiscal 2025 to be between $4.15 and $4.25, down from a previous range of $4.25-$4.35 [6]. - Hologic's second-quarter adjusted earnings were reported at $1.03 per share, flat year-over-year but 0.9% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate [6]. Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, HOLX shares have declined by 21.3%, which is steeper than the industry average and the S&P 500 Composite [2]. - Hologic's sales expectations for China have been lowered to $50 million due to geopolitical challenges [6]. Segment Performance - The Breast Health unit experienced a 2.1% decline in Q1 and a 6.9% decline in Q2 of fiscal 2025, with expectations of continued challenges due to tariff impacts and reduced hospital spending in China [7][8]. - The Diagnostics business showed resilience, with Molecular Diagnostics growing 7.8% year-over-year, driven by high-throughput assays and oncology business growth [10][12]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) and Exact Sciences (EXAS) also reported quarterly results, with BDX facing a $90 million tariff expense for fiscal 2025 [1]. - Exact Sciences raised its 2025 sales and EBITDA guidance, contrasting with Hologic's downward revisions [1]. Valuation and Investment Outlook - Hologic is trading at a forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.01X, lower than the industry average of 4.07X, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [14]. - Despite the current underperformance and downward trend in estimates, the company's strong divisional drivers and financial stability suggest that existing shareholders may consider staying invested [16].