Core Viewpoint - The U.S. and India have established an interim trade deal aimed at reducing tariffs and enhancing trade relations, marking a significant step in their partnership [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The interim agreement will lead to the elimination or reduction of tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods and various agricultural products from India, including animal feed, tree nuts, and fruit [5]. - In return, the U.S. will impose a reciprocal tariff rate of 18% on Indian goods such as textiles, leather, plastics, and certain machinery [6]. - The U.S. will also remove tariffs on additional products, including generic pharmaceuticals and aircraft parts, following the successful conclusion of the agreement [8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - India plans to purchase $500 billion worth of U.S. energy products, aircraft, precious metals, technology products, and coking coal over the next five years [10]. - The agreement is expected to create new opportunities for farmers and entrepreneurs in both countries, reflecting the deepening economic ties between the U.S. and India [2].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in black metal prices are influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and industry chain interactions, with expectations of continued volatility in the short term [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Domestic growth stabilization is gaining traction, with a marginal recovery in the manufacturing PMI in June, leading to increased expectations for infrastructure investment and manufacturing equipment updates in the second half of the year [1] - In the U.S., May CPI data fell below expectations, raising interest rate cut expectations and causing a decline in the dollar index; however, significant policy divergence within the Federal Reserve and ongoing tariff concerns keep investors cautious [1] - Despite the Fed's liquidity release through potential rate cuts, corporate expansion intentions remain low, limiting actual demand growth [1] Supply Side Analysis - Raw material prices are stable, providing cost support; global iron ore supply is concentrated, with a tightening of high-grade ore at ports and high reliance on imports [1] - Coking coal prices are affected by domestic safety regulations, import country policies, and transportation issues, while coking enterprises are limiting production to maintain prices, reducing supply elasticity [1] Demand Side Analysis - Weakness in the real estate sector has significantly reduced demand for construction steel, although affordable housing projects provide some buffer [1] - Infrastructure project construction supports demand for rebar and other steel products, but is constrained by funding and seasonal factors [1] - Industrial manufacturing shows resilience in high-end steel demand, but global slowdown and trade tensions lead to order fluctuations, limiting substantial demand growth [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - The industry chain is tightly interconnected, with upstream raw material price fluctuations squeezing steel enterprise profits [1] - Midstream steel production is constrained by both cost and demand factors, leading to intensified homogeneous competition [1] - Downstream construction and manufacturing sectors are sensitive to steel prices, with cautious procurement leading to inventory accumulation risks; real estate debt risks are transmitted upstream, exacerbating industry chain instability [1] Conclusion - In summary, black metal prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term due to stable supply but high inventory levels, weak construction demand, limited industrial resilience, and the need for effective macroeconomic policies [1]