Summary of Jiangxi Copper Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK/600362.SS) - **Industry**: Copper production, including mining, smelting, refining, and processing of copper products such as copper cathode, wire, and rod, along with by-products like gold, silver, and sulfuric acid [28][32] Key Points and Arguments Target Price and Valuation - **Revised Target Prices**: - H-share target price raised to HK$54.1 from HK$39.8 - A-share target price raised to Rmb64.8 from Rmb47.9 [1][4] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Current stock prices imply 2026E P/Es of 10.0x for H-shares and 14.0x for A-shares, compared to historical averages of 13.7x and 23.5x respectively [5] - **DCF and P/B Valuation**: - DCF valuation yields an NPV-per-share of HK$53.2 for H-shares and Rmb47.9 for A-shares [4][30] Earnings Forecasts - **Earnings Revisions**: - 2025E net profit forecast increased by 2% to Rmb8.4 billion - 2026E net profit forecast increased by 19% to Rmb14.0 billion - 2027E net profit forecast increased by 14% to Rmb13.2 billion [3][9] - **Comparison to Consensus**: - 2025/26/27E earnings forecasts are 2%/30%/19% higher than Bloomberg consensus [3] Sensitivity Analysis - **Metal and Sulfuric Acid Price Sensitivity**: - A 10% increase in copper price (US$13,000/t) would increase 2026E net profit by 8% - A 10% increase in gold price (US$4,600/oz) would increase 2026E net profit by 3% - A 10% increase in sulfuric acid price (Rmb900/t) would increase 2026E net profit by 3% [2][10] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Slower grid investment in China or a significant drop in property demand could weaken copper prices - Lower than expected sulfuric acid prices - Rising mining or smelting costs [31][36] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: - Jiangxi Copper H-shares and A-shares rated as Buy - Long-term bullish view on copper prices remains intact, with expectations of benefiting from increasing copper prices [29][33] Additional Important Information - **Market Context**: - The copper smelting business is expected to remain profitable despite lower TC/RC prices due to rising sulfuric acid prices [1] - **Acquisition Potential**: - Ongoing acquisition of Solgold could contribute to long-term profit growth from 2028E [1] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Jiangxi Copper, focusing on its financial outlook, valuation, and market dynamics.

Jiangxi Copper Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company Name**: Jiangxi Copper - **Ticker**: 0358.HK / 600362.SS - **Industry**: Copper production, mining, smelting, refining, and processing - **Key Products**: Copper cathode, copper wire, gold, silver, sulfuric acid, pyrite concentrate - **Market Capitalization**: HK$120 billion / Rmb108.78 billion as of 15th Dec 2025 - **Control**: Ultimate controlling shareholder is Jiangxi Provincial SASAC [27][31] Core Insights - **Earnings Forecast Revision**: - 2025E net profit forecast revised to Rmb8.2 billion (+8% YoY) - 2026E net profit forecast revised to Rmb11.8 billion (+38% YoY) - 2027E net profit forecast revised to Rmb11.5 billion (+11% YoY) - These revisions are driven by higher forecasts for copper, gold, and sulfuric acid prices [2][7] - **Target Price Update**: - H-share target price revised to HK$39.8 (previously HK$27.9) - A-share target price revised to Rmb47.9 (previously Rmb33.8) - New target prices imply 2026E P/Es of 10.8x for H-shares and 14.1x for A-shares, compared to historical averages of 13.8x and 23.6x respectively [3][29] - **Sensitivity Analysis**: - A 5% increase in copper price (US$12,750/t) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 4% - A 5% increase in gold price (US$3,925/oz) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 1% - A 5% increase in sulfuric acid price (Rmb700/t) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 2% [1][8] Financial Metrics - **Key Operating Metrics**: - Mined copper volume remains stable at 200kt for 2025-2027 - LME copper price forecast for 2026E increased to US$12,750/t (+28% from previous forecast) - Gross profit for 2026E expected to reach Rmb21.89 billion (+43% YoY) [7][10] - **Profit Margins**: - Net profit margin for 2026E projected at 1.6% - EBITDA margin for 2026E projected at 2.5% [7] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Jiangxi Copper H-shares and A-shares rated as Buy - **Rationale**: Despite lower gross profit from smelting due to lower TC/RC prices, higher gold and sulfuric acid prices are expected to offset this impact. Long-term bullish outlook on copper prices remains intact [28][32] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Potential slowdown in China's grid investment - Weaker-than-expected property demand affecting copper prices - Rising mining or smelting costs [30][35] Upcoming Events - **Conference Call**: Scheduled for 10am on 6th Jan 2026, registration link available (Mandarin only) [1][3]