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Citizens Raises Alphabet Price Target on Accelerating Search and AI Momentum
Financial Modeling Prepยท 2025-12-31 15:55
Core Viewpoint - Citizens raised its price target on Alphabet to $385 from $340 while maintaining a Market Outperform rating, driven by improving search fundamentals and multiple medium-term growth drivers [1] Group 1: Price Target and Rating - Citizens increased Alphabet's price target to $385 from $340, maintaining a Market Outperform rating [1] - The firm's reassessment of estimates and valuation was prompted by Alphabet's shares more than doubling from their May lows [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth and Catalysts - Citizens believes Google could further accelerate search revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which is a key near-term question for investors [2] - Medium-term catalysts identified include Gemini, Google Cloud, Waymo, and custom TPUs, expected to support broader results inflection in 2026 and 2027 [3] Group 3: Search Performance and Advertising - Query growth in search appears to be accelerating due to AI Overviews, AI Mode, and Gemini, leading to higher engagement [3] - Smart Bidding Exploration is expanding Google's advertising load by connecting advertisers to user intent rather than keywords, increasing the proportion of queries linked to ads [3] Group 4: Q3 Performance and Future Expectations - The third quarter marked the first full period with Smart Bidding Exploration, and the fourth quarter is expected to benefit similarly, supported by a stable macro backdrop for holiday advertising spend [4]