direct liquid cooling (DLC)

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SMCI's Margins Contracting: Is it Still Built for Profitable Scale?
ZACKSยท 2025-06-30 14:56
Core Insights - Super Micro Computer's (SMCI) revenue is rapidly growing due to its innovative product offerings, particularly in direct liquid cooling (DLC) and server solutions, which are gaining traction among hyperscalers and AI customers [1][2] - Despite the revenue growth, SMCI's gross margin has been inconsistent and is currently on a declining trend, with a significant contraction noted in recent quarters [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3 FY25, SMCI's non-GAAP gross margin decreased by 590 basis points year-over-year and 220 basis points sequentially to 9.7%, primarily due to rising costs associated with new products and high inventory reserves for older products [2][9] - The company has faced margin pressure attributed to an unfavorable product and customer mix, as well as increased costs from ramping up production for its DLC technology [3][4] Production and Capacity Expansion - SMCI is increasing its production capacity in Malaysia and Taiwan, which is expected to lower manufacturing costs in the long term due to economies of scale [5] - The company is also expanding its production capacity in California, aligning with U.S. government initiatives to boost domestic manufacturing, which is anticipated to positively impact gross margins in the future [5] Competitive Landscape - The server and liquid cooling market includes major players like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Dell Technologies, with Dell reporting a backlog of $14.4 billion in AI server contracts despite the irregularities in product deployment [6][7] - HPE's server segment saw a 6% year-over-year sales growth in Q2 FY25, driven by strong demand for AI servers, indicating a competitive environment for SMCI [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - SMCI's shares have increased by 56.1% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry, which grew by 6.7% [8] - The company currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.96X, which is lower than the industry average of 1.76X, suggesting potential undervaluation [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SMCI's fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 6.33%, while fiscal 2026 estimates suggest a growth of 27.54% [11]