GE Vernova Stock Falls After Earnings. It Raises Guidance Again. - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# GE Vernova Falls After Earnings. Guidance Boost Isn't Enough to Lift the Stock.By [Al Root]ShareResize---ReprintsIn this articl ...

Core Viewpoint - GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) has outperformed the alternative energy industry, with shares rising 13.2% over the past three months, while the industry declined by 2.7% [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - GEV's gas turbines are crucial for data centers, providing consistent power and positioning the company as a major supplier in a growing sector, leading to long-term contracts and recurring income [1]. - The company is enhancing profitability in its wind business through cost discipline, while its gas and power services remain robust, driven by increasing demand from data centers and AI [4]. - GEV's return on equity (ROE) stands at 17.07%, significantly higher than the industry average of 6.37%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [17]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In January 2026, GEV commenced commercial operations at PetroVietnam Power Corporation's 1.6-gigawatt power plant, strengthening its presence in Southeast Asia and positioning for future projects [5]. - In December 2025, GEV secured a contract to supply 42 wind turbines for a 256 MW wind farm in South Australia, enhancing its wind business and providing high-margin aftermarket income through a five-year service contract [6][9]. - GEV was awarded a major contract for high-voltage direct current technology for a 2.5 GW renewable power transmission corridor in India, positioning the company for growth in the energy transmission market [9][10]. Group 3: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GEV's 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a 4.16% increase over the past 60 days, with a long-term earnings growth rate projected at 18% [11]. - In contrast, Constellation Energy's EPS estimate has decreased by 0.97%, while Talen Energy's EPS estimate has increased by 1.79% over the same period [11]. Group 4: Challenges - GEV relies on complex global supply chains for components, purchasing nearly $20 billion in materials from over 100 countries, which exposes the company to potential disruptions and increased costs [13]. - The company anticipates that global tariffs imposed in 2025 will raise costs, but the total impact is expected to be at the lower end of the estimated $300-$400 million range for the year [14]. Group 5: Valuation - GEV is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 51.2X, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 21.11X [19].

Core Insights - APA Group has signed a Joint Development Agreement with CS Energy to develop the 400MW Brigalow Peaking Power Plant in Queensland, enhancing its gas-powered generation capacity [1][2] - APA will hold an 80% ownership stake in the project, while CS Energy will retain 20% and operate the plant, which is expected to commence operations in 2028 [2][5] - The project aims to provide firming capacity during peak electricity demand, supporting the growth of renewable energy in Queensland [2][5] Financial and Operational Aspects - APA plans to enter a 25-year hedge offtake agreement with CS Energy, which will provide inflation-linked revenues and a variable component for potential upside [4] - The project is expected to meet APA's internal investment hurdles and will be funded from its existing balance-sheet capacity as part of a A$2.1 billion organic growth pipeline [4] - GE Vernova has been selected to supply gas turbines, with final capital expenditure to be determined after detailed engineering in early 2026 [3] Strategic Importance - The Brigalow project is positioned to address reliability challenges in Australia due to the rapid rollout of renewables and coal retirements [5] - The plant will connect to APA's Roma–Brisbane Pipeline, leveraging existing gas transmission infrastructure and aligning with a prior agreement for a new lateral pipeline [6] - The project supports Queensland's energy-transition agenda, contributing to renewable energy rollout and energy security commitments, while enhancing investor confidence in APA's growth in gas transmission and storage [7]

Market Demand - Mitsubishi Power 预计今年全球燃气轮机订单将增长超过 20% [1] - 美国和中东地区对燃气轮机的需求强劲 [1] Company Outlook - 三菱电力是用于发电的燃气轮机的主要供应商 [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - GE Vernova reported a 10% organic revenue growth in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA more than tripling year-over-year to $811 million, and EBITDA margins expanded by 600 basis points [28][30][29] - The total equipment backlog grew to $54 billion, an increase of $11 billion year-to-date, with a services backlog of approximately $81 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of over $5 billion [26][29] - Free cash flow generation was approximately $730 million in Q3, with a year-to-date total of nearly $2 billion [32][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The electrification segment saw a revenue increase of over 30% with margins expanding to over 15%, driven by strong demand across multiple regions [27][38] - Power orders grew by 50%, with gas power equipment orders more than doubling year-over-year, leading to a revenue increase of 14% [33][30] - Wind revenue decreased by 9% due to the absence of a settlement from an offshore contract cancellation, but onshore services orders were up 27% year-to-date [35][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The electrification equipment market in North America is expected to grow at a compounded growth rate of approximately 10%, doubling in size by 2030 [10] - Significant investment in electrification is being driven by increased electricity demand, grid stability needs, and the energy transition [11] - The backlog for Prolec GE was approximately $4 billion at the end of Q2, with expectations for low double-digit revenue growth driven by volume and pricing [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of Prolec GE for $5.275 billion is aimed at consolidating GE Vernova's position in the grid equipment market, particularly in transformers for North America [5][7] - The company plans to fund the acquisition with a mix of cash and debt while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet [15] - GE Vernova aims to leverage synergies from the acquisition to enhance operational efficiency and expand product offerings, particularly in low and medium voltage technologies [10][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory of the electrification segment, citing strong demand from hyperscalers and data centers [22][19] - The company anticipates continued strength in gas-powered demand and pricing, with expectations to approach 70 gigawatts of contractual gas power commitments by the end of 2025 [20][19] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining reliability and modernizing aging infrastructure to meet increasing electricity demand [11] Other Important Information - GE Vernova is committed to returning at least one-third of cash generated to shareholders while pursuing targeted M&A opportunities [42] - The company has repurchased over 6 million shares for approximately $2.2 billion year-to-date, reflecting confidence in its stock value [26][32] - The company is investing in AI and automation to enhance productivity and meet growing demand in gas turbine controls engineering [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility into 2028 targets for Prolec GE acquisition - Management expressed confidence in the 2028 targets due to existing backlog and framework agreements with utilities, which are expected to drive growth [47][49] Question: Mix and capacity for Prolec GE - Management discussed ongoing investments in capacity and the potential for integrated solutions with data centers, emphasizing a focus on medium and low voltage technologies [54][56] Question: Pricing trends for gas turbines - Management acknowledged that while pricing for U.S. gas turbines is currently strong, there is a mix dynamic affecting the overall pricing perception [59][60] Question: Power equipment dollar orders versus gigawatt orders - Management clarified that the positive delta in dollar growth versus gigawatt growth is due to a mix of aero derivatives and heavy-duty gas turbines [63][64] Question: Structural opportunity for margins beyond 2028 - Management indicated that there is no reason to believe margins cannot exceed previous peak levels, citing a larger install base and a more profitable services business [70][72] Question: Cost synergy realization cadence - Management stated that cost synergies are expected to be realized by 2028, with initial savings anticipated to flow relatively soon as teams begin discussions [77]

Market Trends - AI驱动的电力需求激增导致全球燃气轮机短缺[1]

Core Viewpoint - GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) has announced significant upgrades to its FLEXINVERTER platform, which includes a high-efficiency 1.5kV silicon carbide-based solution for battery storage and the expansion of its 2kV solar inverter to global markets, with manufacturing expected to ramp up by 2026 [1][2]. Company Performance - GEV's stock has increased by 23.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Alternative-Energy industry's growth of 8.9% and the broader Oils-Energy sector's decline of 7%, as well as the S&P 500's fall of 5% [3]. - The company has seen strong performance in its Electrification segment, with equipment order growth of 44% in North America and 92% in Asia during the first quarter of 2025 [11]. Growth Drivers - The global transition to clean energy is a major growth driver for GEV, which invested over $100 million in Q1 2025 to enhance the performance of its 57,000 wind turbines worldwide [5][6]. - GEV's recent developments reflect its commitment to expanding its footprint in the clean energy sector, boosting investor confidence [6]. Market Developments - In May 2025, GEV was selected by Power Grid Corporation of India to supply over 70 extra-high-voltage transformers and shunt reactors, indicating its role in renewable energy integration [7]. - The company also signed agreements to supply wind turbines to community wind farms in Germany, further expanding its market presence [9]. Future Projections - Global electricity consumption is projected to grow by 4.3% year-over-year in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025, which is expected to benefit GEV's grid solution equipment and services [10]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GEV's long-term earnings growth rate is 18%, with sales estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicating year-over-year improvements of 5.7% and 9.4%, respectively [12][14]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GEV's 2025 and 2026 earnings per share shows significant year-over-year growth, with estimates moving up by 9.6% and 0.5% over the past 60 days [14][16]. - Current estimates for GEV's sales in 2025 and 2026 are $36.94 billion and $40.39 billion, reflecting solid growth expectations [15]. Valuation - GEV's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 47.13X, significantly higher than its peer group's average of 15.92X, indicating a premium valuation [20]. - In contrast, peers like Talen Energy and Constellation Energy are trading at lower forward P/E ratios of 21.89X and 26.32X, respectively [21].

Core Viewpoint - GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, with revenue estimates at $7.53 billion, reflecting a 3.8% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 45 cents, a significant improvement from a loss of 41 cents in the previous year [1][2]. Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GEV's revenues is $7.53 billion, indicating a 3.8% improvement from the prior-year quarter [2]. - The Power segment's revenue estimate is $3,946 million, showing a decline of 2.2% from the previous year [9]. - The Electrification segment is expected to generate $1,952.8 million, an 18.3% increase from the year-ago quarter [11]. - The Wind segment's revenue is projected at $1,729.1 million, reflecting a 5.5% improvement from the prior year [11]. Earnings Performance - GEV's earnings have outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 8.57% [2]. - The company's current Earnings ESP is -31.72%, indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [5][4]. - Factors such as favorable pricing, higher productivity, and cost reduction initiatives are expected to positively influence earnings, despite increased service costs impacting performance [12][13]. Market Performance - GEV's shares have decreased by 1.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Alternative-Energy industry's decline of 3.3% and the broader Oils-Energy sector's drop of 7% [14]. - The company is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 41.37X, which is a premium compared to its industry peers [16][17]. Industry Context - The increasing global demand for electricity, driven by data center growth and renewable energy adoption, serves as a key growth catalyst for companies like GEV [19]. - GEV's technology supports approximately 25% of the world's electricity generation, indicating its significant role in the electric power industry [20]. - Challenges in the offshore wind sector, including rising material costs and supply chain issues, may pose risks for GEV [21].