Core Viewpoint - Investor optimism is declining ahead of Starbucks Corporation's fourth-quarter earnings, with growing caution regarding 2026 expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - Consensus earnings per share (EPS) have decreased by 37% over the past 12 months, with ongoing revision risks [2] - The analyst projects fourth-quarter 2025 EPS at 55 cents, slightly below the consensus of 57 cents [3] Same-Store Sales Projections - North America same-store sales are expected to decline by 1.0%, compared to the Street's estimate of a 0.5% decline [3] - International same-store sales are projected to increase by 2.0%, aligning with Street estimates [4] 2026 Guidance and Operating Costs - There is uncertainty regarding whether Starbucks will provide 2026 guidance during the fourth-quarter call, with expectations for a more comprehensive update at an Investor Day in early 2026 [3] - The analyst has lowered the 2026 EPS estimate to $2.34, which is the second-lowest among 31 analysts, compared to a consensus of $2.59 [4] - Per-store operating expenses are anticipated to rise by approximately 7% in 2025, with mid-single-digit growth expected in 2026, including $500 million allocated for labor [5] Competitive Landscape and Traffic Concerns - The analyst notes that tougher competition and ongoing price-value concerns may impact traffic, which is projected to be healthier in 2026 but still below consensus expectations [5] - Street models underestimate 2026 store operating expenses by only 2.5%, with every 100 basis points of weekly operating expense growth reducing EPS by roughly 10 cents [5] Stock Performance - Starbucks shares were trading lower by 1.31% at $86.07 [6]