We came across a bullish thesis on VICI Properties Inc. on Compounding Dividends’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on VICI. VICI Properties Inc.'s share was trading at $29.86 as of February 17th. VICI’s trailing and forward P/E were 11.14 and 10.14 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. REIT Stocks Northstar Realty Finance NRF g0d4ather / shutterstock.com VICI Properties (VICI) is a real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading ga ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenues exceeded $1 billion for the first time, up 33% from the prior year period, driven by growth in both E&M and T&D segments [6][16] - Full-year revenues increased 32% to $3.75 billion, primarily from the E&M business, with EBITDA rising 52% to $320 million compared to 2024 [7][17] - Fourth quarter EBITDA margin was 8.4%, up 70 basis points from 7.7% in the prior year period [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E&M segment revenues increased 44% to $791.6 million in the fourth quarter, with EBITDA rising 57% to $67.1 million [18][19] - T&D segment revenues were $227.7 million, up 6.8% from the previous year, but EBITDA was flat at $30.5 million due to project mix and higher SG&A expenses [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog at the end of 2025 was $3.2 billion, up 16% from the same period last year, with T&D backlog increasing by 41% and E&M backlog by 13% [8][18] - The company sees robust project pipelines across diverse markets, including data centers, hospitality, and semiconductor sectors [9][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on its "Forever Strategy," which emphasizes employee retention, customer value creation, and operational excellence [10][12] - Plans for geographic expansion through satellite projects are in place, with a recent entry into a new market supporting a large semiconductor company [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued growth due to favorable market trends and a strong backlog entering 2026 [24] - The company anticipates revenue guidance for 2026 in the range of $4.1 billion to $4.2 billion, reflecting strong demand drivers [23][24] Other Important Information - The company ended 2025 with approximately 9,400 employees, up from 8,700 at the end of 2024, indicating a focus on workforce expansion [11] - Capital expenditures increased to $66.8 million in 2025, up from $43.8 million in 2024, to support growth initiatives [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance and Margins - Inquiry about whether exceptional execution in 2025 would be repeatable in 2026 and if management is being conservative in their guidance [27] - Management confirmed that exceptional margin upside was due to diversified contributions from various markets and expressed confidence in achieving forecasted margins for 2026 [28][29] Question: Leverage and Free Cash Flow - Questions regarding the company's low leverage and thoughts on optimal leverage levels, as well as free cash flow conversion going forward [30] - Management emphasized the importance of a strong balance sheet for organic growth and M&A opportunities, indicating a target leverage of 1.5-2 times [32] Question: Capacity Constraints and Backlog - Inquiry about potential capacity constraints given the record backlog and lead times for projects [37] - Management reassured that they have sufficient skilled labor to complete projects and that 80% of the backlog typically burns off within 12 months [39][41] Question: Satellite Operations and Expansion - Questions about opportunities for satellite expansions in 2026 and specific geographies of interest [47] - Management indicated a selective approach to satellite operations and mentioned potential opportunities in the South and Southeast [49] Question: Labor Costs and M&A Strategy - Inquiry about labor cost management and the company's approach to M&A in the current market [58][60] - Management stated that they are successfully incorporating labor cost increases into pricing and are open to both larger and smaller M&A transactions [61][63]

​VICI Properties Inc. (NYSE:VICI) is among the Best Affordable Stocks Under $40 to Buy. Wall Street has a positive outlook on VICI as the company gets close to releasing its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on February 25. Analysts’ 12-month price target reflects more than 19.45% upside from the current level, with 76% of the 25 analysts covering the stock having a Buy rating. ​However, recently, on February 2, Greg McGinniss from Scotiabank downgraded VICI Properties Inc. (NYSE:VICI) from Buy to Hold and also lo ...

Core Viewpoint - VICI Properties Inc. is experiencing mixed analyst sentiments, with recent downgrades from Scotiabank and price target adjustments from Cantor Fitzgerald, despite its strong fundamentals and potential for future growth in the REIT sector [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Scotiabank downgraded VICI Properties from Outperform to Sector Perform and reduced the price target from $36 to $30, indicating cautious sentiment [1]. - Cantor Fitzgerald lowered the price target from $35 to $33 but maintained an Overweight rating, highlighting potential upside in 2026 due to favorable macro conditions and M&A trends [2]. Group 2: Company Acquisitions and Market Position - In Q4, VICI Properties agreed to acquire seven casino properties, including the STRAT Hotel and two Arizona Charlie's locations, marking its entry into the Las Vegas Locals market, the second-largest gaming market in the U.S. [3]. - VICI Properties operates a significant portfolio of gaming, hospitality, and entertainment destinations, serving as a landlord for notable properties like Caesars Palace and the MGM Grand [4].

Group 1 - VICI Properties Inc. is recognized as one of the 13 best extremely profitable stocks to invest in currently [1] - The consensus price target for VICI is $35.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.64%, with 80% of analysts maintaining a bullish outlook [3] - Recent analyst updates include a downgrade from 'Outperform' to 'Sector Perform' by Scotiabank, with a revised price target of $30 [3] Group 2 - Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its price target from $35 to $33 while keeping an 'Overweight' rating, citing stable fundamentals and a well-covered dividend yield of nearly 4% [4] - Barclays also lowered its price target from $37 to $33, reiterating an 'Overweight' rating, reflecting tenant-related risks [5] - VICI Properties operates as a gaming-focused real estate investment trust, generating consistent rental income from casino, hospitality, and entertainment properties across the U.S. [6]

Company Overview - VICI Properties Inc. is a New York-based real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on high-value experiential real estate, primarily in casinos, hospitality, entertainment, and leisure properties, with a market cap of $29.6 billion [1]. Market Position - VICI is classified as a "large-cap stock" due to its market cap exceeding $10 billion, highlighting its size, influence, and dominance in the diversified REIT industry [2]. - The company has established itself as a dominant landlord in the gaming and leisure space through strong tenant credit profiles, inflation-linked rent escalators, and strategic acquisitions [2]. Stock Performance - VICI's stock has declined 18.5% from its 52-week high of $34.03, reached on March 10, and has underperformed the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE), which dropped only 2.8% over the same period [3]. - Over the past 52 weeks, VICI's shares have fallen 12.4%, compared to XLRE's 6.5% decline, and year-to-date, VICI is down 5.1% while XLRE has shown marginal returns [4]. Recent Financial Results - On October 30, VICI reported Q3 results with a topline growth of 4.4% year-over-year to $1 billion, and an increase in AFFO per share by 5.3% to $0.60, supporting its eighth consecutive annual dividend increase [5]. - The company has raised its fiscal 2025 AFFO per share guidance to a range of $2.36 to $2.37, indicating confidence in continued growth [5]. Competitive Analysis - VICI has underperformed compared to its rival EPR Properties, which gained 14.8% over the past 52 weeks and 16.6% year-to-date [6]. - Despite recent underperformance, analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus rating for VICI, with a mean price target of $35.71, suggesting a 28.8% premium to current price levels [6].

Core Viewpoint - VICI Properties Inc. is a leading REIT focused on gaming, hospitality, and entertainment, with a market cap of approximately $32 billion, but its stock has underperformed compared to broader market indices [1][2]. Financial Performance - VICI's Q3 topline grew 4.4% year-over-year to $1 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 43 basis points [5]. - The company's adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share increased by 5.3% to $0.71, surpassing Street expectations by 1.6% [5]. - For the full fiscal year 2025, analysts project an AFFO of $2.37 per share, reflecting a 4.9% year-over-year increase [5]. - VICI has demonstrated a robust AFFO surprise history, exceeding estimates in each of the past four quarters [5]. Stock Performance - Year-to-date, VICI stock prices have gained 2.7%, but have declined 7.5% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's gains of 16.3% in 2025 and 17.7% over the past year [2]. - The stock has slightly outperformed the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLRE) marginal 57 basis points uptick year-to-date, but has underperformed XLRE's 7% decline over the past 52 weeks [3]. Analyst Ratings - Among 23 analysts covering VICI, the consensus rating is a "Strong Buy," with 18 "Strong Buys," one "Moderate Buy," and four "Holds" [6]. - This rating configuration has improved slightly from two months ago, when 17 analysts recommended "Strong Buy" [7]. - Stifel analyst Simon Yarmak maintained a "Buy" rating on VICI but lowered the price target from $35 to $34 [7].

Core Insights - VICI Properties Inc. is a leading REIT focusing on experiential properties, including gaming, hospitality, and entertainment venues, with a diverse portfolio that allows it to capitalize on the tourism and entertainment sectors [1] Price Target and Market Outlook - The consensus price target for VICI Properties' stock has shown a positive trend, with the average price target increasing from $36.67 to $37, indicating a favorable outlook from analysts [2] - Analyst Richard Anderson from Wedbush has set a price target of $33, reflecting confidence in the stock's potential despite short-term challenges in the tourism sector [5] Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - VICI's stock has experienced a 6.6% decline over the past four weeks but is now considered oversold, suggesting a potential trend reversal [3][6] - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upwards, indicating optimism for a turnaround in VICI's performance [3] Earnings Expectations and Financial Health - VICI Properties is expected to report positive Q3 earnings, driven by stable lease revenues and a diversified portfolio [4][6] - The company has a robust debt profile and over $600 million in retained cash flow, providing flexibility for growth [4]

Core Insights - VICI Properties Inc. is valued at a market cap of $33 billion and is a leading experiential real estate investment trust, owning major properties like Caesars Palace Las Vegas and MGM Grand [1] - The company is set to announce its fiscal Q3 earnings for 2025 on October 30, 2023, with analysts expecting an FFO of $0.60 per share, reflecting a 5.3% increase from the previous year [2] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2025, VICI is projected to report an FFO of $2.37 per share, which is a 4.9% increase from $2.26 per share in fiscal 2024, with further growth expected to $2.49 per share in fiscal 2026 [3] - In Q2, VICI reported quarterly revenue of $1 billion, marking a 4.6% year-over-year increase and slightly exceeding consensus estimates, driven by higher income from sales-type leases and lease financing [5] - The company's AFFO for Q2 was $0.60 per share, up 5.3% from the same period last year, aligning with analyst expectations [6] Market Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, VICI's shares have decreased by 5%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 14.4% increase but outperforming the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund's 5.8% decline [4] - Wall Street analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" rating for VICI, with 18 out of 23 analysts recommending "Strong Buy," one suggesting "Moderate Buy," and four advising "Hold," indicating a mean price target of $36.86, which suggests a 19.2% potential upside [7]

Core Viewpoint - VICI Properties' shares are down approximately 6.5% from their 52-week high, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors, especially given the stock's current dividend yield of 5.7% and growth potential [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Income Stability - VICI Properties invests in leading casino, hospitality, wellness, entertainment, and leisure destinations, primarily through triple-net leases with an average remaining lease term of 40 years [3]. - Most leases include rent escalation clauses linked to inflation, with 42% of leases escalating this year and projected to rise to 90% by 2035, resulting in stable and steadily increasing rental income, with a 1.7% average same-store rent growth this year [4]. - The company pays out about 75% of its adjusted funds from operations (FFO) in dividends, allowing it to retain a significant portion of cash flow for reinvestment in new income-generating properties [4]. Group 2: Financial Health and Growth Potential - VICI Properties maintains a strong investment-grade balance sheet with a low leverage ratio of 5.2, providing financial flexibility for new investments [5]. - The company has consistently increased its dividend every year since its inception, achieving a 6.6% compound annual growth rate in dividends, significantly higher than the average 2.3% growth for similar REITs [6]. - The combination of stable cash flow and conservative financial metrics supports the sustainability of VICI Properties' high-yielding dividend, with ample growth drivers for future income increases [7].