Core Insights - Representative Cloe Fields' investment in Opendoor Technologies has seen a return of over 200% in a short period, highlighting significant stock performance [1][2] - The stock price surged from around $2 to $10, representing a gain of nearly 220% in under two months, while the S&P 500 index rose less than 5% during the same timeframe [2][4] Company Developments - Opendoor's stock rally has been attributed to major corporate changes, including the appointment of former Shopify COO Kaz Nejatian as CEO and the return of co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu to the board [5] - The resignation of outgoing CEO Carrie Wheeler and her sale of millions in stock have contributed to the perception of a new chapter for the company [5] Market Dynamics - The stock has exhibited meme-stock characteristics, with retail investors driving the price higher and short sellers scrambling to cover their positions [6] - Despite the rally, challenges remain for Opendoor, including an untested iBuying model at scale, thin margins, and substantial debt related to housing inventory [6] Timing and Speculation - The timing of Representative Fields' investment coincided with announcements that triggered the stock rally, raising questions about the nature of his information access [8]

Core Thesis - Opendoor Technologies has the potential to reach a share price of $9–10, doubling from its current price of $5, driven by revenue recovery and valuation reset [3][4][8] Revenue and Valuation - Opendoor recorded revenues of $6.9 billion in 2023 and $5.2 billion in 2024, with forecasts suggesting a recovery to $12–13 billion by 2026 [3] - The company is currently trading at 0.3x forward sales, significantly lower than competitors like Zillow, which trades at 3x [4] - If revenues recover to $12 billion and the price-to-sales (P/S) multiple increases to between 0.7 and 1.0x, the stock could trade around $9–10 [4][8] Key Growth Drivers - Housing market stabilization is expected as mortgage rates decrease and inventory remains constrained, leading to increased transaction activity [6] - Improving unit economics with gross margins rising from negative figures in 2022 to approximately 5–6% in 2024 due to better pricing algorithms [6] - Diversification into mortgage, title, and home services is increasing revenue per customer and reducing reliance on iBuying [6] - Partnerships with Zillow, Realtor.com, and homebuilders are enhancing deal flow and distribution [6] Path Toward Profitability - The company has shown positive adjusted EBITDA in recent quarters and is projected to significantly reduce net losses by 2025, which could attract institutional investors [7][9]