Core Insights - Bond ETFs are experiencing downward pressure as investors prepare for the upcoming FOMC meeting, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) reaching a three-month low despite an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The market is more concerned about the Fed's guidance following the potential rate cut rather than the cut itself, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts once the policy rate falls into the 3.5–3.75% range [2] - The concept of a "hawkish cut" is being discussed, where the Fed would lower rates but indicate that further easing is unlikely [3] Bond Market Dynamics - Bond yields and prices are inversely related, with TLT tracking the long end of the curve where yields have increased sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield around 4.81%, up from October's lows of approximately 4.5% [4] - The long end of the curve is less influenced by the Fed's policy rate, with larger fiscal deficits and changing inflation expectations contributing to the weakness in long bonds, while short-term yields are more responsive to Fed policy [5] - The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to about 4.17%, its highest since September, but remains below January's highs near 4.8% [6] ETF Performance - The iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) has outperformed both TLT and the iShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY), with IEF up 7.8% year-to-date compared to TLT's 4.7% and SHY's 4.6% [7]