Summary of Yili Industrial NDR Feedback Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Industrial (600887.SS) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: Rmb167,070 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb35.00, representing a 28% upside from the closing price of Rmb27.26 on September 26, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Raw Milk Supply/Demand Dynamics**: - Management indicated a sequential drop in cow herds and a rebound in non-contractual raw milk prices, expecting a supply/demand balance by 2026 [2][9] - **Product Category Strategy**: - Focus on liquid milk recovery, with a target of low to mid-single digit growth post-2026 [10] - Anticipation of higher growth in other dairy segments, leading to a gradual decline in liquid milk's contribution to total sales [2][9] - Plans to enhance the product portfolio mix and incubate new segments for long-term growth [9] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Projected net revenue for fiscal years ending December 2024 to 2027: Rmb114,121 million, Rmb117,704 million, Rmb122,646 million, and Rmb129,510 million respectively [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Expected EPS growth from Rmb1.32 in 2024 to Rmb2.24 in 2027 [6] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Estimated at Rmb3-4 billion per annum in the near term [10] Strategic Focus Areas - **Market Share Goals**: - Aim to secure the 1 market share for the Yili brand by 2027 [10] - **Dividend Policy**: - Commitment to maintain a dividend payout of no less than 70% and consider share buybacks [10] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected demand recovery and better margin expansion due to rational marketing investments [13] - **Downside Risks**: - Potential for slower dairy demand growth and prolonged raw milk oversupply, which could necessitate continued promotional investments [13] Additional Insights - **Stimulus Policies**: - Management anticipates more rounds of subsidies to boost birth rates in 2026, which could positively impact raw milk supply [3] - **Long-term Growth Segments**: - Focus on deep-processing, overseas markets, and adult milk powder as part of the growth strategy [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Yili Industrial NDR feedback, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and industry dynamics.

Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Mengniu Dairy - **Ticker**: 2319.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$59.5 billion / $7.6 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$79.5 billion / $10.2 billion - **Industry**: China Consumer Staples Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Sales and Revenue Guidance - Management guided for a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit percentage decline in top line for FY25, with liquid milk expected to decline slightly, narrowing from a -11% decline in 1H25 to a better performance in 2H25 [1] - The company remains cautious about gifting demand trends for the Mid-Autumn Festival in Q3 and for Q4 due to a later Chinese New Year [1] 2B Business Highlights - Mengniu expects its 2B overall sales to reach approximately Rmb10 billion in 2025, with a double-digit percentage year-on-year growth rate [1] - Breakdown of the Rmb10 billion sales target: 60% from liquid milk (mainly from coffee/tea chained stores and food service) and 40% from solid milk (driven by sales from Australian plants and Milkground cheese) [1] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) for 2B business is expected to be lower than 2C, but Operating Profit Margin (OPM) remains healthy, particularly for the 2B liquid milk business, which can achieve around 5% Net Profit Margin (NPM) [1] Long-term Margin Opportunities - Management anticipates cheese sales to exceed Rmb5 billion, with Rmb2.3 billion achieved in 1H25, and ice cream sales to reach approximately Rmb6 billion, with Rmb3.9 billion in 1H25 [1] - Southeast Asia's EBITDA margin doubled last year with sales up by double digits, and NPM is nearing group-level [1] - Positive growth is expected to resume in the infant formula segment, contributing to long-term margin expansion from non-liquid milk business [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The winter season will be critical for observing supply/demand dynamics, with management noting a prolonged downcycle in 2025 YTD, showing a high-single-digit percentage year-on-year decline in demand for liquid milk [1] - Supply side is expected to cut by a low-single-digit percentage into Q3, with large-scale dairy farms reluctant to reduce herd size [1] - Potential supply/demand re-balancing opportunity is anticipated into mid-2026, with smaller dairy farms expected to exit the market [1] One-off Items and Losses - The company noted a significant narrowing of losses in the dry powder resale unit, expecting a 40-50% reduction in these losses [1] - Associate losses from Modern Dairy are expected to be smaller in 2H25 compared to 1H25, despite ongoing impairments from herd size cuts [1] - A one-off disposal gain from the sale of a New Zealand factory is anticipated to be less than Rmb100 million in 2H25 [1] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb88,674.8 million - FY25E: Rmb82,590.5 million - FY26E: Rmb86,527.8 million - FY27E: Rmb90,594.7 million [3] - **EBITDA Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb4,578.4 million - FY25E: Rmb8,992.1 million - FY26E: Rmb10,393.5 million - FY27E: Rmb11,266.0 million [3] - **EPS Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb0.03 - FY25E: Rmb1.00 - FY26E: Rmb1.37 - FY27E: Rmb1.60 [3] Risks and Considerations - Key downside risks include slower-than-expected premium demand, slower recovery in dairy demand, increased competition in the dairy industry, and wider losses in new categories [27] Conclusion Mengniu Dairy is navigating a challenging market environment with cautious revenue projections for FY25, while focusing on growth in its 2B business and long-term margin opportunities. The company is also addressing supply/demand dynamics and potential losses in specific segments, indicating a strategic approach to stabilize and grow its business in the coming years.