Core Thesis - Seagate Technology Holdings plc is positioned as a growth-oriented infrastructure provider in the AI-driven storage market, transitioning from a traditional HDD player [2][4] Financial Performance - For Q2 2026, Seagate reported revenue of $2.83 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.11, significantly exceeding expectations [3] - The company achieved gross margins of 42.2%, indicating strong pricing power and production discipline [3] - Free cash flow reached $607 million, with operating cash flow at $723 million, while maintaining a $1 billion cash balance and repaying $500 million in debt [5] Capacity and Demand - Nearline capacity is fully booked through 2026, indicating strong demand and long-term contracts with major hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon [4] - The introduction of HAMR technology, with single-platter capacities exceeding 30TB, positions Seagate as a key provider for AI workloads [4] Valuation and Market Position - Seagate's forward P/E is 29.5x, reflecting optimism regarding AI-driven storage demand, although traditional valuations would suggest a lower stock price [6] - The company's strategic positioning, full capacity utilization, and long-term contracts create a compelling investment narrative, offering both short-term momentum and long-term growth potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing size of AI models will lead to a higher demand for nearline storage, which will positively impact companies like Sandisk and Seagate [1] Company and Industry Summary - The growth in AI model sizes is expected to drive memory demand, benefiting the storage industry [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in earnings for companies providing essential AI infrastructure, particularly focusing on Palantir Technologies and hard drive manufacturers Seagate Technology and Western Digital [1][2][3]. Company Performance - Palantir Technologies has experienced rapid software adoption, especially among enterprise customers, leading to strong revenue growth and a 143% stock increase year-to-date [2]. - Seagate Technology reported a 52% year-over-year increase in nearline capacity shipments, while Western Digital saw a 36% increase [7]. - Both Seagate and Western Digital have exhibited strong revenue growth and margin expansion, with Seagate's gross margin expanding by 7 percentage points and Western Digital's by 6.1 percentage points [8]. Earnings Growth - Seagate's earnings per share climbed 147% year-over-year last quarter, while Western Digital's operating income for its remaining business also increased by 147% year-over-year [9]. - The demand for hard drives, particularly for nearline storage, has surged due to the growing need for data storage in AI applications [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The hard drive industry is cyclical, and while current earnings are strong, there is a risk of a downturn as high fixed costs may impact future profitability [10]. - Long-term spending commitments from major AI players, such as OpenAI's $400 billion investment in data centers over the next three years, may extend the current cycle [11]. Competitive Advantage - Seagate expects to enhance its price advantage in 2026 through its heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology, while Western Digital is slightly behind in scaling its next-generation technology [12]. - The forward P/E ratios for Seagate and Western Digital are 22 and 18, respectively, indicating that while they may appear cheap compared to other AI stocks, they are relatively expensive compared to their historical valuations [13].

Core Insights - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly boosted the stock performance of companies like Palantir Technologies and Seagate Technology, with Palantir's stock increasing by 2,500% since the start of 2023 and Seagate's stock gaining 121.4% in 2025 alone [2][7]. Company Performance - Palantir Technologies has integrated generative AI into its software, leading to soaring sales and profits, with a notable 120.7% rise in stock value in 2025 [2]. - Seagate Technology has experienced a surge in demand for nearline storage, shipping 137 exabytes of capacity last quarter, which is a 14% sequential increase and a 52% year-over-year increase [8]. - Seagate's revenue grew by 39% in fiscal 2025, with gross profit margin expanding from 23.4% to 35.2% year-over-year, and an impressive fourth-quarter gross margin of 37.4% [8]. Market Dynamics - The demand for data center storage is expected to rise significantly, from $13 billion in 2024 to $23 billion by 2028, indicating a prolonged growth cycle for companies like Seagate and Western Digital [10]. - Seagate and Western Digital are the two major suppliers of hard drives, both benefiting from the current demand cycle, which has led to strong gross margin expansion [9]. Competitive Landscape - Seagate has developed a technology lead with its heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) process, which is expected to enable the production of 40TB hard drives by the second half of fiscal 2026, while Western Digital is lagging behind by about six months [13]. - The competition between Seagate and Western Digital typically keeps pricing low, but the current demand cycle has allowed for margin expansion [12]. Valuation Considerations - Seagate's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 18.5, which is considered attractive compared to Palantir's 245 times earnings multiple, suggesting Seagate may be undervalued [14]. - Both Seagate and Western Digital are trading at a premium to their historical pricing, indicating that it may be prudent to wait for a better entry point before investing [16].