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SMID Upgraded to Outperform as Structural Growth Catalysts Align
ZACKSยท 2025-10-10 14:31
Core Viewpoint - Smith-Midland Corporation (SMID) has received an "Outperform" recommendation due to multiple growth drivers that support sustained margin expansion and earnings visibility [1] Group 1: Growth Drivers - The transition towards a higher-margin rental-based model is supported by infrastructure tailwinds from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) [1][6] - The company's barrier rental business is experiencing significant growth, driven by the national replacement cycle for highway barriers that meet MASH-TL3 standards [3][4] - Smith-Midland's backlog reached $54 million as of August 1, 2025, with most projects expected to complete within 12 months, benefiting from IIJA funding [6][8] Group 2: Financial Performance - Barrier rental revenues increased to $14.2 million in the first half of 2025, up from $2.3 million a year earlier, indicating strong demand and fleet utilization [4] - Gross margin expanded by 360 basis points year over year to 29.7% in Q2 2025, with operating income nearly doubling to $5.5 million [12] - The cost of sales decreased to 72% of revenues from 77% a year prior, reflecting improved operational efficiency [13] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The shift towards a recurring revenue base offers margin resilience and lower cyclicality compared to traditional one-time sales [5] - Federal and state spending programs are driving demand for Soundwall and Easi-Set modular building systems, which saw revenue increases of 137% and 95%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company is well-positioned to capture demand from data center expansions, particularly in Northern Virginia, enhancing its product diversification [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Continued margin improvement is anticipated in the second half of 2025, with a trajectory towards double-digit EBITDA margins by fiscal 2026 [14] - The management team is addressing internal control weaknesses and maintaining a healthy balance sheet, positioning the company to outperform the broader construction sector through 2026 [16] - The evolution from a cyclical precast manufacturer to a recurring revenue infrastructure solutions provider presents a compelling growth story in the reindustrializing U.S. economy [16]