Core Viewpoint - BigBear.ai Holdings has seen a significant stock price increase of over 370% in the past year, driven by securing contracts and growing its backlog, but concerns exist regarding the sustainability of this growth and the nature of its backlog [1][2]. Backlog Analysis - BigBear's backlog, which is an estimate of the dollar value of contracts not yet executed, totals just under $385 million, with a significant portion (77%) consisting of unexercised options [5][6]. - The funded backlog, representing contracts with appropriated funding, accounts for only 5% of the total backlog, indicating a reliance on federal government contracts that may face lengthy approval processes [7][8]. - The unfunded backlog represents contract values without authorized funding, raising concerns about the realization of future revenue from this backlog [6][7]. Financial Performance - BigBear's revenue for 2024 was $158 million, reflecting a modest growth of just 2%, with previous years showing flat revenue growth [8][9]. - The company projects revenue for 2025 to range from $160 million to $180 million, suggesting a potential growth rate of up to 14%, but this is still considered lackluster for an AI stock [9][10]. - Over the past 12 months, BigBear has incurred losses of approximately $230 million, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges [10][11]. Investment Considerations - BigBear is often compared to Palantir Technologies, but it is viewed as a riskier investment due to its lack of profitability and limited growth [11][12]. - Investors may be tempted to buy BigBear shares in hopes of it becoming the next Palantir, but caution is advised as the company has much to prove [13].