Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Aier Eye with a Neutral (N) rating and a price target (PT) of Rmb13.00 for December 2025 [1][4][32]. Core Insights - Aier Eye is positioned as a leader in the expanding ophthalmology market, driven by an aging population and increasing quality of life demands. The company benefits from resilient demand for cataract and eye disease therapies, ensuring steady industry growth despite a sluggish consumer economy in China [1][8][36]. - The report estimates an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share (EPS) from 2024 to 2027, but notes that the stock is reasonably priced at a 28x FY25E price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, suggesting a wait for a pullback or signs of recovery in discretionary procedures [1][8][32]. Market Overview - The ophthalmic services market in China is projected to grow from Rmb73 billion in 2015 to Rmb286 billion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of approximately 11% [5][37]. - The demand for age-related conditions, particularly cataracts affecting around 150 million patients, and a large base of over 700 million myopic patients, is expected to drive growth in refractive surgery and medical optometry services [5][38]. Company Positioning - Aier Eye operates over 900 hospitals and clinics, holding approximately 8% of the total market share, and is expected to achieve a gross margin of 50% by 2024, which is 5-10% higher than its peers [5][17]. - The company’s physician partnership model and equity incentive programs are crucial for talent retention and clinical innovation, which are essential for maintaining service quality [5][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from Rmb20.37 billion in FY23 to Rmb27.18 billion in FY26, with an adjusted EBITDA margin projected to stabilize around 32% [7][8]. - The report forecasts a 25% revenue growth for high-margin refractive surgery from FY25 to FY27, although growth in this segment is expected to be flat in FY24 [5][8]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb13.00 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, assuming a market risk premium of 6.2% and a risk-free rate of 3.8% [9][32]. - Aier Eye's valuation is considered reasonable compared to its peers, with a forward-looking PE ratio of 28x, which is in line with the average PE of comparable private specialty hospitals [23][28].