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Intuitive Surgical Pre-Q3 Analysis: Buy, Hold or Sell ISRG Stock Now?
ZACKSยท 2025-10-17 14:10
Core Insights - Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is expected to report Q3 2025 earnings on October 21, with sales estimated at $2.41 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.99 [2][10] - The company anticipates a 15.5-17% increase in worldwide da Vinci procedures in 2025, which is expected to positively impact revenue for the upcoming quarter [2][10] - Despite strong fundamentals, ongoing tariff pressures and global capital expenditure (CapEx) constraints may limit growth potential [6][11] Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, ISRG achieved an earnings surprise of 14.06%, consistently beating estimates over the past four quarters with an average surprise of 14.07% [3] - The Instruments & Accessories (I&A) segment remains a key revenue driver, with revenue per procedure stable at nearly $1,800, supported by the adoption of new instruments [7] - The Systems segment saw strong demand for da Vinci 5 systems, with 180 units placed in the second quarter, raising average selling prices to $1.5 million [8] Market Position - ISRG's shares have declined by 17% year-to-date, underperforming the industry average decline of 9.7% and the S&P 500's gain of 14.5% [12] - The company's current forward P/E ratio stands at 48.64, significantly higher than the industry average of 27.58, indicating a premium valuation despite a decrease from a five-year high of 71.61 [16] Growth Drivers - The rollout of da Vinci SP in Europe and the broad launch of da Vinci 5 in the U.S. are expected to drive system adoption [20] - The Services segment is likely to continue its growth due to higher utilization and the adoption of Intuitive Surgical's digital ecosystem [9] - The integration of AI-enabled insights into clinical practice is anticipated to enhance long-term customer retention [9] Challenges - Tariff pressures are projected to impact 2025 margins by nearly 100 basis points, with ongoing global CapEx constraints particularly affecting system placements in regions like Japan and China [11] - Softness in bariatric procedure volumes may offset gains from other segments, presenting a potential risk to overall performance [10][20]