Core Viewpoint - TD Cowen has lowered its price target for McDonald's Corp. to $320 from $330 while maintaining a Hold rating due to weaker-than-expected third-quarter traffic trends in the U.S. market [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The U.S. same-store sales forecast for the third quarter has been reduced to 2% from 3%, which is below the Consensus Metrix estimate of 2.6% [2] - Limited improvement in traffic was observed following the relaunch of Extra Value Meals on September 8, potentially offset by declining sales of snack wraps introduced in July [2] Group 2: Consumer Perception - Despite McDonald's renewed focus on value offerings, survey data indicates that low-income consumers' perception of the brand's value has weakened since July 2025, likely contributing to the softer-than-expected performance [3] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - A 23x forward P/E multiple has been applied to derive the new price target, down from 24x previously, aligning with the three-year average and one turn below the five-year average [4] - Analysts expect the stock to remain range-bound between $290 and $320 per share, or 21x–24x FY2 earnings, until U.S. traffic trends show more sustainable improvement [4]

Core Insights - McDonald's Corporation is implementing a bold marketing strategy to address declining traffic and macroeconomic challenges, launching a campaign in partnership with The Minecraft Movie to enhance brand excitement and visit frequency [1][2][4] Marketing Strategy - The campaign exceeded expectations, with collectibles selling out in 10 to 14 days, leading to improved traffic trends in April and supporting other marketing efforts like the $5 Meal Deal [2][8] - The company is focusing on storytelling, digital integration, and product innovation to engage diverse demographics [2][4] - Upcoming product launches, including McCrispy Chicken Strips and snack wraps, will be supported by national campaigns to deepen emotional connections with the brand [3][4] Operational Enhancements - McDonald's has established a Restaurant Experience Team to streamline campaign execution and accelerate new initiatives [3][4] - The marketing strategy aims to balance cultural relevance with operational feasibility, enhancing baseline performance while protecting franchisee economics [4] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Chipotle and BJ's Restaurants are also leveraging innovative marketing strategies, with Chipotle focusing on menu innovation and digital targeting, and BJ's utilizing social media virality to drive demand [5][6] Financial Performance - McDonald's shares have decreased by 5.5% over the past three months, contrasting with a 4.5% rise in the industry [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings increase of 4.5% for 2025 and 7.8% for 2026, with recent upward revisions in estimates [11]